The Independent Market Observer

Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2019

March 13, 2019

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for March? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: February 2019

February 8, 2019

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for February? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2019

January 10, 2019

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for January? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: December 2018

December 14, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for December? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monday Update: Retail Sales Growth Bounces, Manufacturing Healthy

November 19, 2018

Last week started off with looks at prices and whether inflation is picking up. This week is a short but busy one on the economic front, with reports on housing and durable goods demand.

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Monday Update: Producer Prices Up on Rising Energy Costs

November 12, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, with looks at business prices and confidence, as well as consumer confidence. This week’s data starts with prices and whether inflation is picking up.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2018

November 7, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for November? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: October 2018

October 10, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for October? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: September 2018

September 11, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for September? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2018

August 9, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for August? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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