The Independent Market Observer

Strong Retail Sales Show Consumers Can Spend—If They Want To

May 13, 2016

After yesterday’s discussion of wage growth, today’s data on consumer spending and confidence makes for a good follow-up.

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Monday Update: Economic Data Mixed But Improving

May 9, 2016

Last week’s news was mixed but more positive than we’ve seen recently, suggesting that the economy continues to stabilize and may be starting to improve.

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Monday Update: Spring’s Not Here Yet

May 2, 2016

Once again, last week’s economic news was disappointing overall, with a few bright spots.

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Monday Update: Housing Data Weak But Momentum Still Positive

April 25, 2016

Last week’s economic reports were, once again, weaker than expected. Housing news was mixed, with industry sentiment remaining healthy but failing to improve while starts pulled back. On the other hand, sales of existing homes jumped, reversing a decline in the previous month.

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The Risk of Higher Oil Prices

April 22, 2016

oil pricesYesterday, I wrote that the U.S. economy, especially on the jobs side, remains basically healthy and even strong. At the same time, risks around the world seem to be receding. Chinese growth looks like it’s picking up, Europe also seems to be responding to central bank stimulus, and most of the things we were worried about over the past six months haven’t turned out so bad.

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New York Primary Results Should Help Reassure Markets

April 20, 2016

In my post last week about the election and financial markets, I wrote that it was too early to worry about what the candidates are likely to do if elected. That remains true, but the New York primary results suggest it’s not too soon to think about what the rest of the race might look like—and what that might mean for the economy and the markets.

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Monday Update: Weaker Than Expected

April 18, 2016

Last week’s economic data was unexpectedly weak, with disappointing news on both retail sales and industrial production. Although forward-looking indicators are improving, the past week’s numbers suggest that the economy hasn’t yet moved beyond the slowdown.

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Economic Growth and the $15 Minimum Wage

April 14, 2016

I'm grateful for the many reader questions I've received recently—thank you all very much. Today, we’ll address another one: What does the prospective increase in the minimum wage mean for the economy, and how does that tie into recent slower growth in wages?

This is an excellent question, as it combines several important issues—hiring, wage growth, inequality, and economic growth— into one picture.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, April 13, 2016 [Video]

April 13, 2016

I was on CNBC’s Power Lunch today, talking with host Brian Sullivan about where the market can go from its current near-record high.

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Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis: Much Ado About Not Much

April 12, 2016

Per a reader's request, today we'll talk about the impact of the current debt crisis in Puerto Rico. Not only is this a major issue for the Puerto Ricans and their investors, but it also sheds light on how similar crises are likely to play out in the future.

You might want to pay attention to this movie, because you will be seeing it again over the next several years—probably more than once.

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