--- title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (8) description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (8) --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/Forbes%20Images/Look%20Back%20Ahead/Forbes_LookBackAhead-b.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-june-and-ahead-to-july-2024) ## [Looking Back at the Markets in June and Ahead to July 2024](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-june-and-ahead-to-july-2024) July 9, 2024 June was a good month for markets, with most indices up in the low- to mid-single digits. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs during the month, and bond returns were positive due to falling interest rates. International markets were more mixed in June, as developed markets fell on rising political uncertainty while emerging markets were up for the month. Solid fundamentals and an improving economic backdrop helped support returns in June. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-june-and-ahead-to-july-2024) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-june-and-ahead-to-july-2024#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/2024%20Midyear%20Outlook/MYO_IMO_Meta_GeoPoliticalRisks.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2024-midyear-outlook-navigating-the-geopolitical-waters) ## [2024 Midyear Outlook: Navigating the Geopolitical Waters](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2024-midyear-outlook-navigating-the-geopolitical-waters) July 2, 2024 Recently, inflation and interest rates have dominated the headlines. And for good reason—they are known market and economic risks. But as we look toward the second half of 2024, investors must also be prepared to navigate the geopolitical risks, whose twists and turns can often lead into uncharted territory. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2024-midyear-outlook-navigating-the-geopolitical-waters) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2024-midyear-outlook-navigating-the-geopolitical-waters#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Politics/Politics-c.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-the-2024-elections-could-mean-for-portfolios) ## [What the 2024 Elections Could Mean for Portfolios](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-the-2024-elections-could-mean-for-portfolios) June 27, 2024 Many Americans will be tuning in to tonight’s first presidential debate not just for the entertainment but to gauge what policies the candidates lay out and how they could affect their portfolios. But the truth is that nearly half the world’s population will face national elections this year, with several already concluded. It’s important to keep in mind that these elections will impact those portfolios with significant international exposure *and* those with U.S. exposure.  [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-the-2024-elections-could-mean-for-portfolios) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-the-2024-elections-could-mean-for-portfolios#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/2024%20Midyear%20Outlook/MYO_IMO_Meta_USEcon.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2024-midyear-outlook-slower-growth-ahead-for-u.s.-economy) ## [2024 Midyear Outlook: Slower Growth Ahead for U.S. Economy?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2024-midyear-outlook-slower-growth-ahead-for-u.s.-economy) June 27, 2024 So far in 2024, the U.S. economy has traveled a winding road. As we began the year, expectations were for turbulence ahead, given stubbornly high inflation and interest rates, restrictive monetary policy from the Fed, and a slowdown in consumer and business spending. Instead, strength in hiring fueled consumer spending despite rising rates. Still, GDP growth slowed to 1.3 percent in the first quarter (from 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023), leading to more uncertainty on where the economy will go in the second half of the year.  [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2024-midyear-outlook-slower-growth-ahead-for-u.s.-economy) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2024-midyear-outlook-slower-growth-ahead-for-u.s.-economy#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Intl-Markets/Intl-Markets-d.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-there-a-case-for-international-equities) ## [Is There a Case for International Equities?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-there-a-case-for-international-equities) June 20, 2024 As the fears about Y2K dissipated and the dot-com boom entered its last few months, the world’s equity investment opportunity set was split roughly 50 percent in the U.S. and 50 percent in the rest of the world. Fast-forward to today, and approximately 64 percent of global market capitalization is in the U.S. This shift has resulted from the U.S. equity market’s outperformance since the end of the great financial crisis more than a decade ago. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-there-a-case-for-international-equities) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-there-a-case-for-international-equities#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/The-Fed/the-fed-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-progress-made-but-more-work-ahead) ## [Digesting the Fed: Progress Made, But More Work Ahead](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-progress-made-but-more-work-ahead) June 13, 2024 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the seventh consecutive meeting, leaving its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This decision was widely anticipated, with futures markets pricing in a near-zero percent chance of a rate cut in the days and weeks leading up to the meeting. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-progress-made-but-more-work-ahead) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-progress-made-but-more-work-ahead#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/Forbes%20Images/Look%20Back%20Ahead/Forbes_LookBackAhead-a.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-may-and-ahead-to-june-2024) ## [Looking Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June 2024](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-may-and-ahead-to-june-2024) June 7, 2024 Markets rallied in May, with U.S. stocks up mid-single digits for the month. This was an encouraging rebound following the declines we saw in April, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to new record highs during the month. International markets were also positive in May, with developed and emerging markets ending the month with gains. Even fixed income did well, as falling interest rates supported bond prices in May. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-may-and-ahead-to-june-2024) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-may-and-ahead-to-june-2024#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-e.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q1-2024-earnings-season-review-building-expectations) ## [Q1 2024 Earnings Season Review: Building Expectations](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q1-2024-earnings-season-review-building-expectations) June 4, 2024 When a Cinderella story comes out of nowhere to win a championship, fans are ecstatic (just like I was watching Tom Brady win his first Super Bowl against the heavily favored Rams). But once teams have experienced success, the bar will continue to rise—and teams must also rise to meet the next challenge. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q1-2024-earnings-season-review-building-expectations) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q1-2024-earnings-season-review-building-expectations#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Intl-Markets/Intl-Markets-g.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headlines-sentiment-or-data-how-to-gauge-a-countrys-health) ## [Headlines, Sentiment, or Data: How to Gauge a Country’s Health](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headlines-sentiment-or-data-how-to-gauge-a-countrys-health) May 23, 2024 With nearly half the world’s population set to face national elections this year, including here in the U.S., it’s a time of questioning for many. People want to know who their next leader will be, how changing policies may affect them, what the economic implications will be, and what place their country or region will have in the world. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headlines-sentiment-or-data-how-to-gauge-a-countrys-health) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headlines-sentiment-or-data-how-to-gauge-a-countrys-health#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monthly%20Market%20Risk%20Update/MonthlyUpdate-l.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-shifting-sands-of-the-market-a-challenge-for-asset-allocators) ## [The Shifting Sands of the Market: A Challenge for Asset Allocators](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-shifting-sands-of-the-market-a-challenge-for-asset-allocators) May 16, 2024 In our team meetings, we often discuss the shifting sands of the market. Not only is it an interesting topic, but it poses a challenge for asset allocators. We are in the midst of a multi-year outperformance cycle for large-cap growth. The companies that have driven this outperformance have all become household names: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla. The top 10 names in the S&P 500 account for roughly 32 percent of the index compared to the average since 1990 of 20 percent. During the dot-com boom, the top 10 weightings peaked at 25 percent. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-shifting-sands-of-the-market-a-challenge-for-asset-allocators) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-shifting-sands-of-the-market-a-challenge-for-asset-allocators#comments-listing) [Previous](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/7) [Next](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/9) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLIYNKvnVARkaRRE0O41Fcf%2Bq%2BgGRGX4R7dERRX1qnTQNsd4nmgA65bvEVMIN110YmiDRkE%2FHlrj3%2FYccimLT5cp0Ns54j2bBhw7tzPzQe6tXaZDvShdnPQVr4sUfh6DWCVM6sZBek4wNyU497tpIYBSjboi%2FR0%2Fml6F7zRNasGikA2qwM0C%2BJ0%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - 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