--- title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (22) description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (22) --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/softer-inflation-numbers-a-win-for-economy) ## [Softer Inflation Numbers a Win for Economy](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/softer-inflation-numbers-a-win-for-economy) November 10, 2022 This will be another short post as I am giving a talk this morning on . . . wait for it . . . inflation! The whole thesis of the talk is that inflation is going to roll over shortly, for a bunch of reasons that I will describe in future posts. Or so I hope, anyway. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/softer-inflation-numbers-a-win-for-economy) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/softer-inflation-numbers-a-win-for-economy#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Election/election-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/midterm-elections-no-longer-a-worry-for-markets) ## [Midterm Elections No Longer a Worry for Markets](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/midterm-elections-no-longer-a-worry-for-markets) November 9, 2022 This will be a short post, partially because I am in San Diego at Commonwealth’s National Conference, but mostly because there isn’t much to say about the midterms that I did not already cover [the other day](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-midterm-madness-affect-the-markets). [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/midterm-elections-no-longer-a-worry-for-markets) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/midterm-elections-no-longer-a-worry-for-markets#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-october-and-ahead-to-november-2022) ## [Looking Back at the Markets in October and Ahead to November 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-october-and-ahead-to-november-2022) November 8, 2022 October showed a sharp rebound after a significant September drop. The S&P 500 gained 8.1 percent during the month, while the Nasdaq rose 3.94 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced the best month of the three major indices, soaring 14.07 percent. Internationally, the news was mixed, with developed markets up 5.38 percent while emerging markets were down 3.09 percent. It was a surprisingly good result, especially after a terrible September. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-october-and-ahead-to-november-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-october-and-ahead-to-november-2022#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Jobs/employment-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/two-cheers-for-the-october-jobs-report) ## [Two Cheers for the October Jobs Report](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/two-cheers-for-the-october-jobs-report) November 4, 2022 As I have been saying for some time, the best indicator for the economy as a whole is the jobs market. With consumer spending representing more than two-thirds of the economy, as long as people are working, they can spend. And the jobs numbers tell us whether they are working. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/two-cheers-for-the-october-jobs-report) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/two-cheers-for-the-october-jobs-report#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Election/election-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-midterm-madness-affect-the-markets) ## [Will Midterm Madness Affect the Markets?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-midterm-madness-affect-the-markets) November 3, 2022 One of the questions I have been getting recently is about the effect of the midterm elections on markets. This is normal. In fact, given the level of partisan rancor—and the number of ads I’ve been seeing on TV—it is surprising that there isn’t more concern around the elections. But with voting just a couple of days away, let’s consider what the elections could mean for our investments. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-midterm-madness-affect-the-markets) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-midterm-madness-affect-the-markets#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/ESG/esg-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-did-esg-investing-become-an-ideological-hot-button) ## [How Did ESG Investing Become an Ideological Hot Button?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-did-esg-investing-become-an-ideological-hot-button) October 28, 2022 As fiduciaries, advisors are tasked with putting client interests ahead of their own. They have a duty to preserve good faith and trust. From an investment perspective, that includes considering all materially relevant information to mitigate risk and improve returns through prudent investment management*.* But from an [environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing](https://www.cfainstitute.org/en/research/esg-investing) perspective? It’s where the rift between proponents and opponents of this investing strategy begins. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-did-esg-investing-become-an-ideological-hot-button) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-did-esg-investing-become-an-ideological-hot-button#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-d.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-shocks-vs.-trends) ## [Inflation: Shocks Vs. Trends](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-shocks-vs.-trends) October 27, 2022 This will be the second blog post that's come out of my efforts to try to finish my talk for Commonwealth’s National conference. If you remember, in the [previous post](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-its-not-an-isolated-problem), the question was whether we were headed back to the 1970s, with all that implies (inflation, stagflation, high unemployment, disco), or back to the 1950s (which, for all its faults, did not have disco). [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-shocks-vs.-trends) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-shocks-vs.-trends#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/inflation-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-its-not-an-isolated-problem) ## [Inflation: It’s Not an Isolated Problem](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-its-not-an-isolated-problem) October 25, 2022 I am working on my presentation for Commonwealth’s National conference in a couple of weeks (yes, I am late), but I have to admit I am having some trouble telling the story. Over the past several years, I have taken whatever the hot topic of the day was—whether it was globalization, low interest rates, or the pandemic—and tried to put it in a larger context. In other words, to take something fairly isolated as a problem and tie it to everything else as a means of understanding what was likely to happen over the next five years or so. Looking back, I did a pretty good job. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-its-not-an-isolated-problem) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-its-not-an-isolated-problem#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/ESG/esg-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/remote-work-and-its-effect-on-the-traditional-office) ## [Remote Work and Its Effect on the Traditional Office](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/remote-work-and-its-effect-on-the-traditional-office) October 21, 2022 In the face of a public health crisis, the decision to send remote-capable workers home from the office seemed an obvious one. But as vaccines became widely available and the rate of Covid-19 infection started to decline, harder questions arose. When and how do employees return to the office? To be sure, defining the post-pandemic “new normal” has been tricky. Although there is no one-size-fits-all solution, clear trends are emerging—which will have definite implications for the use of office property. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/remote-work-and-its-effect-on-the-traditional-office) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/remote-work-and-its-effect-on-the-traditional-office#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/changing-trends-create-cloudy-market-forecast) ## [Changing Trends Create Cloudy Market Forecast](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/changing-trends-create-cloudy-market-forecast) October 18, 2022 At this point in the year, I really spend some time thinking about what the future holds for the markets and economy. Yes, of course, that is my full-time job. But for most of the year, “the future” consists of the next month or so, the next quarter at most. People need to understand what is happening now and what that means for the next couple of weeks. So, that is what I focus on most of the time. You can see that in this blog and in my monthly market and economic risk updates and videos. What commands the most attention is the now. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/changing-trends-create-cloudy-market-forecast) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/changing-trends-create-cloudy-market-forecast#comments-listing) [Previous](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/21) [Next](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/23) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLLmiCALBejzowY5d5OHAjl9uM%2Bj6wHTO0Rt7RYOxC0ij5DVqwVZW2T5Z5RXCdNcD4B5CsGsAtsxOig4F%2FzahixTK5%2BZ94UwoZHotiOqpm3uFCxv4wBrUw2Kx4SHVh6Mys6%2BSbvEEaq5PyUKhLhCKHsuPws6zw7UAaoRMytPqKZoKjfDTI6HGF8RuuvP8FpcUKi%2Bt1teV2I08xg%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - 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