Looking Back at the Markets in April and Ahead to May 2020

May 6, 2020

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. April was a Dickens of a month. But what lies ahead? Let’s take a closer look.

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Markets Are Confident—But Are They Right?

April 30, 2020

As we did last week, I’d like to provide an update on where we are in the coronavirus crisis. This week, the news has generally been good. The virus continues to come under control, with the growth rate slowing (although the case count has not declined as much). Some states are reopening their economies, which will give us valuable data and should help with employment. Finally, the markets have continued to rally but may have gotten a bit ahead of themselves. Let’s take a closer look.

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Is Runaway Inflation an Inevitability?

April 29, 2020

With the Fed’s regular meeting concluding today, expectations are that the central bank will continue to provide whatever stimulus is necessary to keep the economy afloat. In conjunction with the federal government’s unprecedented multi-trillion dollar stimulus program, fears are rising that inflation is coming both fast and hard—and that we, as investors, need to plan now for this inevitability. I don’t believe it.

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Bonds Broke—Now What?

April 28, 2020

Brad here. Today, Nick Follett, manager of fixed income on our Investment Management and Research team, is here to discuss what's happening with bonds and the fixed income market. Over to you, Nick!

About one month ago, the bond market broke. Equities were down, as was fixed income—at exactly the time when you would expect and need it to be up. The 10-year U.S. Treasury, which started the year at 1.90 percent, fell from 1.10 percent (on March 2) to 54 basis points (bps) just one week later. There were concerns about every aspect of the financial system, from money market funds to the system itself. Indiscriminate selling forced down all fixed income classes as even the most liquid Treasuries, municipal bonds, and investment-grade corporates saw few if any buyers for the inordinate number of sellers.

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A Historic Collapse in Crude Oil Prices

April 23, 2020

Brad here. Today, my colleague Nate Parker, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, provides insights on the oil markets and why U.S. prices recently dropped into negative territory. Enjoy!

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Real Progress in Coronavirus Crisis, But Concerns Remain

April 22, 2020

Today, I'd like to take another look at where we are with containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Since last week, there has been real progress on many fronts, although concerns remain.

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Where Do the Markets Go from Here?

April 21, 2020

Now that it looks like the coronavirus is starting to come under control (and I will do another update here tomorrow), it is time to think about what is coming next for the markets. We have had the fastest onset of a bear market in history, followed by the fastest recovery into a bull market in history. This kind of volatility is, well, historic. But since it is unprecedented, we can’t really look back at history for guidance as to what happens next.

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