The Independent Market Observer

What Mattered This Week? U.S. Economy Chugging Along

December 8, 2023

It was another good week for the economy, while there wasn’t a lot of news on the market front. Let’s take a closer look.

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Looking Back at the Markets in November and Ahead to December 2023

December 6, 2023

Markets improved last month across the board as interest rates pulled back on signs of slowing growth. U.S. markets were up by high-single to low-double digits, while international markets were also up by high-single digits. Even fixed income posted gains of around 5 percent. For the first time in a while, everything went up.

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What Mattered This Week? All About Interest Rates (Again)

December 1, 2023

What mattered this week in the economy and the markets? Let’s dive right in.

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Will December’s S&P 500 Return Matter for 2024?

November 30, 2023

In my October blog post, I concluded by stating that in an intermediate time frame, things looked shaky for markets. Still, I firmly believed that the S&P 500 was undergoing a correction and that the uptrend would resume in due course. Indeed, since October 31, the S&P 500 is up more than 8 percent and the Nasdaq is up more than 10 percent.

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Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates Soon?

November 30, 2023

Interest rates are back in the news again, along with a feverish dissection of the latest meeting notes and comments from the Fed. Will the Fed cut rates or not? When? How much? Surely, the Fed has to. That means markets are going up! And so they rise.

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What Mattered This Week? Fed Minutes, Consumer Sentiment

November 24, 2023

Here's a quick update for this holiday-shortened week! From my perspective, two things mattered this week:

  1. The release of the FOMC meeting minutes
  2. The latest consumer sentiment reading
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Thanksgiving Food for Thought: The Parable of the Turkey

November 22, 2023

Once upon a time, a turkey hatched in the dead of winter. He lived in a nice warm coop, had plentiful corn and seeds to eat, and spent much of his poult-hood playing with all of the other little turkeys.

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Q3 2023 Earnings: A Little Taste of Everything This Thanksgiving

November 21, 2023

Everyone has their Thanksgiving favorites, whether that’s the turkey, the mashed potatoes, the stuffing, or the gravy. For me, it’s the pie—blueberry with my mom’s homemade whipped cream.

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What Mattered This Week? Progress on Inflation, Markets Bounce

November 17, 2023

This was a week of good news pretty much across the board, which doesn't happen all that often. Congress managed to kick the can down the road again on spending, avoiding a governmental shutdown. Inflation was down across the board. And with both those risks subsiding, interest rates dropped—pushing markets higher. We continue to close in on a soft landing for the economy, and markets keep reacting to that.

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The Federal Deficit and Debt: A Painful Problem to Solve

November 16, 2023

Today, I want to discuss a topic that has somewhat fallen off the radar: the federal deficit and debt burden. It has been off the radar screen for a decade, since the last debt panic. The reason for that is that the panic led to real reforms that largely solved the problem. That episode—the fiscal cliff and the sequester—has a lot to tell us about today’s situation. Let's take a closer look.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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