--- title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (11) description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (11) --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/stock-market-d.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/navigating-uncertainty-what-were-hearing-from-portfolio-managers) ## [Navigating Uncertainty: What We’re Hearing from Portfolio Managers](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/navigating-uncertainty-what-were-hearing-from-portfolio-managers) January 8, 2024 When I speak to folks interested in a financial services career, I tell them the best thing about it is that every day is different. This is something that the economy and the markets have made abundantly clear over the past few years. I also often think back to a TV show from the late 1990s, *Early Edition,* where the main character gets the newspaper the day before it’s published and uses what he’s learned to help others. In challenging times, this might prove useful in finding investment success for clients. Alas, it’s not a resource we have at our disposal. But what we do have is insight from various portfolio managers across the industry. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/navigating-uncertainty-what-were-hearing-from-portfolio-managers) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/navigating-uncertainty-what-were-hearing-from-portfolio-managers#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2024) ## [Looking Back at the Markets in December and Ahead to January 2024](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2024) January 5, 2024 Markets rose last month, continuing November’s rally as interest rates pulled back even more on expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Markets in the U.S. were up by mid-single digits, finishing a solid quarter and a very strong year. International markets were also up substantially for the month, quarter, and year. And while stocks were hot, even fixed income posted enough gains to close out the year in the black. 2023 ended with a bang. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2024) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2024#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Images_Brad_IMO_Blog/Spring_2014/Charts/Christmas.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/merry-christmas-to-all) ## [Merry Christmas to All](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/merry-christmas-to-all) December 22, 2023 I’ve always loved Christmas, but I think I’ve lost much of the spirit as I’ve gotten older. Now that I have a young son—who enjoys baking cookies with his mom and eyeing presents under the tree, while struggling to behave under the eye of the “Elf on the Shelf"—I find myself recovering much of what I’ve lost. This is wonderful, but, as a father, I also find myself reaching deeper into the meaning of the holiday. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/merry-christmas-to-all) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/merry-christmas-to-all#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO_6040%20portfolio_12.21.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/whats-the-outlook-for-the-60/40-portfolio) ## [What's the Outlook for the 60/40 Portfolio?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/whats-the-outlook-for-the-60/40-portfolio) December 21, 2023 Is it time to start thinking differently about asset allocation, or does the 60/40 portfolio still make sense? That was the question for members of our Investment Management and Research team—and the topic made for some lively discussion. Watch the video below to hear what the team thinks about this longstanding investment strategy. And if you're looking for a broader economic and market view, click on 2024 Outlook in the sidebar to your right. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/whats-the-outlook-for-the-60/40-portfolio) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/whats-the-outlook-for-the-60/40-portfolio#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/2024%20Outlook/IMO_LongView_12.18.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/taking-the-long-view-where-will-the-economy-and-markets-be-in-2028) ## [Taking the Long View: Where Will the Economy and Markets Be in 2028?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/taking-the-long-view-where-will-the-economy-and-markets-be-in-2028) December 18, 2023 When we put together economic and market outlooks, we typically focus on the near term—the next month, the next quarter, or the next year. As the great philosopher Yogi Berra noted, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” So, we tend to stay close to the present, where we know more and can at least set some reasonable expectations. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/taking-the-long-view-where-will-the-economy-and-markets-be-in-2028) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/taking-the-long-view-where-will-the-economy-and-markets-be-in-2028#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/The-Fed/the-fed-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-focus-on-the-fed) ## [What Mattered This Week? Focus on the Fed](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-focus-on-the-fed) December 15, 2023 There was a fair amount of data this week, but only one thing mattered: the Fed. Continued slowing inflation data and signs of a slowing economy took the Fed from a hawkish, we will keep rates higher-for-longer stance, to a much more dovish stance in the past meeting. The Fed's projections have switched from higher rates indefinitely to an expected three rate cuts next year, which is a very big shift. More, Chair Powell's commentary in the press conference acknowledged directly both the better inflation data and slower growth. Higher for longer may be dead—at least that’s what markets think. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-focus-on-the-fed) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-focus-on-the-fed#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-rates-hold-steady-but-cuts-to-come) ## [Digesting the Fed: Rates Hold Steady, but Cuts to Come?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-rates-hold-steady-but-cuts-to-come) December 14, 2023 This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the third consecutive meeting, leaving its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This decision comes as no surprise, with the futures markets indicating a near-zero percent chance of a rate increase in the days and weeks leading up to the meeting. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-rates-hold-steady-but-cuts-to-come) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-rates-hold-steady-but-cuts-to-come#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economy/Economy-a.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-u.s.-economy-chugging-along) ## [What Mattered This Week? U.S. Economy Chugging Along](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-u.s.-economy-chugging-along) December 8, 2023 It was another good week for the economy, while there wasn’t a lot of news on the market front. Let’s take a closer look. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-u.s.-economy-chugging-along) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-u.s.-economy-chugging-along#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-november-and-ahead-to-december-2023) ## [Looking Back at the Markets in November and Ahead to December 2023](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-november-and-ahead-to-december-2023) December 6, 2023 Markets improved last month across the board as interest rates pulled back on signs of slowing growth. U.S. markets were up by high-single to low-double digits, while international markets were also up by high-single digits. Even fixed income posted gains of around 5 percent. For the first time in a while, everything went up. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-november-and-ahead-to-december-2023) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-november-and-ahead-to-december-2023#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-all-about-interest-rates-again) ## [What Mattered This Week? All About Interest Rates (Again)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-all-about-interest-rates-again) December 1, 2023 What mattered this week in the economy and the markets? Let’s dive right in. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-all-about-interest-rates-again) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-all-about-interest-rates-again#comments-listing) [Previous](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/10) [Next](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/12) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLIsA58QBjEif5yd3wx3x0Zy7VrPzBhXPKmO66y9fP42IAmbIU5CDAuJZy2rpGB6NFvijBt1sKYldGA52OUXc2TiMZVbakt48nKscf9%2FpVzJMpWvMAPWYNGaZitDUzIGEwLJHA5Ne7zpkk5B1W%2Fk7vAEyfAB%2BBv4SAOBW1C1pqysfOju1l4PiU0%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - 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