The Independent Market Observer

The Outside View: Russia

February 11, 2015

As I mentioned yesterday, Russia’s economy basically doesn’t work without oil. Today we’ll take a deeper look at that problem, along with the potential consequences as Russia attempts to deal with it.

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Two Economic Risks for the U.S.

February 9, 2015

As I mentioned in my post about the latest employment numbers, I’ve been focusing quite a bit on all of the good things happening for the U.S. economy. But that doesn't mean I'm not paying attention to potential threats. 

Let’s take a look at a couple of economic risks the U.S. faces.

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Storm Report: About to Be Crushed by Glaciers

January 27, 2015

Today’s post will be a short one for two reasons. First, Commonwealth’s Massachusetts office is closed due to the snowstorm slamming New England.

Second, of course, is because my home, my family, and I are about to be crushed by the oncoming glaciers. So I hear, anyway.

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China: The Outside View

January 15, 2015

Let’s take the factors we discussed yesterday and apply them to the countries that matter, starting with China.

The largest economy outside the U.S., China is approaching several challenges, the most urgent of which is the need to shift economic growth away from infrastructure and investment and toward consumption. Let’s examine the data and see what an outside view suggests for investors.

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Three Ways to Assess a Country's Economic Future

January 14, 2015

Now that we’ve determined which countries are globally relevant, from an economic point of view, we need to decide which factors really matter in how those countries will fare over the next five years.

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Which Countries Matter?

January 13, 2015

Building on yesterday’s post, today we’ll start to look at what a global perspective means in an investment context. Of course, I know perfectly well that all countries matter; what I’m getting at in the headline is “Which countries are economically significant on a global scale?”

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Taking the Global View

January 12, 2015

This week, I'm at Commonwealth’s Chairman’s Retreat in Miami, a place that quickly reminds you that the world is much bigger than the U.S. As it happens, my talk here will focus on the rest of the worldand how, exactly, the U.S. fits into it.

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Worried About a Dollar Collapse? Don't Be . . . Yet

December 29, 2014

This post previously appeared in mid-2013, but given the Fed’s ongoing monetary policies over the last few years, and the recent volatility in the currency markets, it makes sense to revisit today.

In my role as chief investment officer at an independent broker/dealer–RIA, I often receive questions from advisors, their clients, and the media about the potential for a dollar collapse and, more important, what currency would replace the dollar in that (in my belief) unlikely event.

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Hope, Sacrifice, and the Meaning of Christmas

December 24, 2014

As 2014 draws to a close, it's time for my traditional Christmas post. Best wishes to you and yours this holiday.

I have always loved Christmas. But as I grew older, I seemed to lose much of the spirit. Now that I have a six-year-old son—who is wrestling with the stress of being good under the eye of the “Elf on the Shelf,” guessing about presents under the tree, and baking cookies with his mom—I find myself recovering much of the Christmas spirit I had lost.

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Holiday Gratitudes 2014

December 23, 2014

The holidays are always a good time to reflect on the many things we have to be grateful for. As we settle in for a family celebration, here’s my list.

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