The Independent Market Observer

What’s Worrying Investors?

March 14, 2024

Every year or two, a new round of worries crops up. Some of them are real—the war in Ukraine, inflation, politics—but a surprising number are not. The challenge, of course, is telling which is which. 

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Q4 2023 Earnings: The Winter Thaw Has Begun

March 12, 2024

I love spending time outdoors—except when it’s 20 degrees outside. For me, winter in Boston is a time to focus on self-improvement, whether that’s working on fitness goals or taking a class, so I can enjoy the warm weather when it finally arrives. Still, the winter can seem very long, as did 2022 and 2023 for many businesses. Companies saw margins contract, sought to lower their debt loads as rates rose, and made efforts to right-size their businesses for what seemed like an oncoming recession.

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International Women’s Day: Investing in Women

March 8, 2024

Since the 1980s, we have celebrated and honored female trailblazers, who have shaped our history and advocated for change, during Women’s History Month. Today, March 8, is no exception, as we celebrate International Women’s Day by recognizing women’s global achievements and contributions to history, culture, and society. International Women’s Day also serves as a powerful reminder of the ongoing struggles women face in the modern workplace, including gender equality, pay equity, and the lack of visibility of women in leadership positions.

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Looking Back at the Markets in February and Ahead to March 2024

March 5, 2024

February was a good month for stocks, with most markets up in the low- to mid-single digits on positive economic and earnings news. The riskiest indices, the Nasdaq and emerging markets, performed especially well as investors stayed risk-on. Fixed income, on the other hand, generally declined as interest rates rose significantly during the month on fading hopes for Fed rate cuts. These results reflected the broader economy in different ways. But, where growth continues, so does inflation.

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A Start to Remember for the Markets

March 1, 2024

In my last blog, I talked about how strong Januarys historically tend to lead to strong returns throughout the remainder of the year. But I also noted there could be a bit of volatility in February. To my surprise, this turned out to be one of the better Februarys the S&P 500 has ever had, finishing the month up 5.17 percent.

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A Portfolio Manager’s View on Markets

February 22, 2024

Most people know Yogi Berra as the Hall of Fame catcher and 10-time World Series champion with the New York Yankees. Many also know him as an unintentional philosopher, with famous quotations including “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” One Yogi saying I find myself thinking about frequently is this: “No one goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.” Here, Yogi was referring to a popular restaurant in Fort Lauderdale where the Yankees were having spring training. But it seems applicable to the conversations that we have daily. 

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Looking Back at the Markets in January and Ahead to February 2024

February 6, 2024

In general, markets edged up last month. U.S. markets continued their rally at a slower pace as interest rates bounced around, which also constrained fixed income returns. International markets were more mixed, with developed international markets roughly even and emerging markets down, primarily due to weak performance in China.

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Digesting the Fed: Committee Members Need More Time

February 1, 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This outcome was confidently priced into futures markets leading up to the meeting, so the committee’s decision comes as no surprise.

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Market Outlook: Strong January, Strong Year?

February 1, 2024

Thus far, market momentum has carried over from 2023 into 2024. Things started slow, with the S&P 500 closing down more than 1.5 percent during the first week of the year. But it has since rebounded sharply, hitting several new all-time highs in the process and closing the month of January up 1.59 percent.

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Will India Steal China’s Thunder Within Emerging Markets?

January 18, 2024

Emerging markets may not always be top of mind when building portfolios, but their importance to global growth should not be ignored. In the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October Global Forecast, the IMF noted that advanced economies’ contribution has slowed from a peak of 38 percent of global economic growth in 2006 to an expected 15 percent in 2023. Over the same time frame, emerging and middle-income economies have risen from 58 percent of global growth to an expected 78 percent of global growth in 2023. 

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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