From beginning to end, the 2024 election cycle will be looked back on as historic. It was hard fought and contentious on both sides. But at the end of the day, polls and political pundits don’t decide elections—voters do.

In the most recent Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (October 2024), managers were asked what they considered the biggest “tail risk.” Their answer: geopolitical conflict. So, if you’ve been thinking about geopolitical risks and their potential effect on portfolios, you are certainly not alone.

“The wind is rising, and the air is wild with leaves. We have had our summer evenings; now for October eves!”
— Humbert Wolfe

Anyone past a certain age knows how much easier it was to do things when they were younger. You could stay up all night to finish a project, play a pickup basketball game without stretching, and eat or drink whatever you wanted without many consequences. As we get older, though, we start to see the effects of our poor decisions but also gain the experience that can help guide us.

September was a solid month for investors, capping off a strong quarter for markets. Falling interest rates helped support stock returns, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average setting new record highs during the month. Even bonds were up, marking five straight months with positive fixed income performance.

“Sometimes the questions are complicated, and the answers are simple.”
— Dr. Seuss

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted to cut rates by a half-percent, bringing its policy range to 4.75 percent to 5 percent. This decision comes after committee members had elected to hold rates steady at the preceding eight meetings after their hiking cycle concluded in July 2023. This vote also marks the first time in recent periods that a voting committee member dissented from the popular vote. We saw 11 committee members vote in favor of the action, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as the sole dissenter, preferring a quarter-percent cut.

If you entered this NFL season as a Kansas City Chiefs fan, you’re probably hoping for a Super Bowl win after clinching three of the past five Super Bowls and having Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback and Taylor Swift backing the team. (As a Patriots fan, I remember that feeling.) Similarly, after the S&P 500 beat earnings estimates for several quarters, investors aren’t just hoping to beat earnings. They are looking for both a beat and better guidance going forward. Investors had to settle for just one of those in the second quarter.

August was an encouraging month for stocks, as markets were able to end the month in positive territory despite an early-month sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the month at a record high, while the S&P 500 was close to its own record level. The Nasdaq Composite lagged its peers, but the technology-heavy index still managed to eke out a modest gain during the month.

“Do you believe in miracles? Yes!”