The Independent Market Observer

Is It a New Bull Market?

May 16, 2025

I am a firm believer that the market doesn’t like uncertainty. That reality has been seen on more than one occasion in 2025, most notably post-Liberation Day. As discussed in last week’s post, uncertainty hasn’t disappeared—even after the pause in the trade war between the U.S. and China. One of the other investing tenets I believe in is that when things look the bleakest, the market embraces less bad news. And that reality has been evident recently, with the S&P 500 rallying more than 22 percent since the year-to-date low on April 7.

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The Market Observatory: It's Wait and See for the Fed [Audio]

May 14, 2025

Last week was all about the Fed, while this week we saw developments on tariffs and a de-escalation with China. In the latest episode of the Market Observatory, Sam Millette and I unpack all the hot topics, including how the economy and markets might react to improving headlines.

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Mixed Signals on the Path Ahead for U.S. Economy

May 7, 2025

Last week, I once again had the pleasure of presenting at a Commonwealth conference. As always, our advisors' questions were well thought out, thought-provoking, and covered a lot of ground.

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The Market Observatory: Tariffs and Trade Policy [Audio]

April 23, 2025

In this month's Market Observatory episode, Sam Millette and I discuss the dominating news story of the year: tariffs and trade policy. Uncertainty has weighed on markets and investors, and the on-again, off-again nature of these policies continues to change the range of outcomes for the economy and corporate earnings.

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Is It Time for Investors to Play the Long Game?

April 21, 2025

During periods of market volatility and declines, investors get concerned. They question their long-term objectives and whether they have more risk in their portfolios than they can tolerate. These are reasonable thoughts to have at times like these.

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Looking at the Economic Data and Volatility in the Bond Market

April 14, 2025

Last week, the S&P 500 was up 5.7%, the strongest week for the market since November 2023. The Nasdaq rose 7.3%, which was the best week for that index since November 2022. The rally was a result of President Trump’s announcement that he was pausing reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. And while there was no relief for China and the back-and-forth escalation between the two countries, markets latched onto the good news and rallied after a tough couple of months for equity investors. 

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Tariffs Shock Economy and Markets

April 9, 2025

The markets are in the middle of a historic decline. Not so much in the magnitude—while we are approaching a bear market, these happen fairly regularly—but in the speed of the drop. We have rarely, if ever, seen this kind of a sudden decline, especially from close to record levels. People are nervous, of course, and understandably so. But that makes it even more important to take a step back and understand how we got here because that will inform where we are going.

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Putting the Market Sell-Off into Perspective

April 7, 2025

At the start of last week, the S&P 500 rallied three days in a row, with investors believing that the tariffs announced on Wednesday would be targeted. But with increasing expectations comes the potential for disappointment. On April 2, the much-anticipated tariff announcements arrived—and investors did not like the news. President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs across the board on all imports from all other countries, excluding Canada and Mexico. Had that been the extent of it, the market’s expectations would most likely have been met. But it also included tariffs on countries identified as bad actors when it comes to trade, which included 34 percent tariffs on China, 24 percent on Japan, and 20 percent on the EU.

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Q1 2025 in Review: Investors Take a Wild Ride

April 1, 2025

The first quarter of 2025 took investors on a rollercoaster, driven by on-again, off-again tariff policy announcements. From Election Day through February 19, 2025, the S&P 500 experienced a 5.7 rally, including a 3.9 percent increase to start the year. Tariffs were initially tempered from what had been discussed on the campaign trail, and investors focused on the pro-growth elements of the Trump administration agenda.

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Unpacking My Suitcase: The Fed, Policy, and International Markets

March 24, 2025

Last week, I had the pleasure of presenting at a Commonwealth conference. I love spending time and sharing ideas with our advisors. They are the best in the business.

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Episode 4
February 19, 2025

Episode 3
January 22, 2025

Episode 2
December 17, 2024

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November 19, 2024

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

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