Last week, I had the pleasure of presenting at a Commonwealth conference. I love spending time and sharing ideas with our advisors. They are the best in the business.

As of the end of trading on Thursday, March 13, the S&P 500 closed down 10 percent from its all-time high, marking an official correction. It was the first correction since October 2023—17 months ago. From an investment horizon perspective, that isn’t that long. While there wasn’t an official correction in 2024, there was an 8 percent drawdown. Still, those two years ended with the S&P 500 up 24 percent and 23 percent, respectively.

In our Market Observatory audio series, Sam Millette and I break down the latest market and economic signals that we believe will shape the month ahead. From tariffs to big tech, we share our perspective on what's happening now and what it could mean for investors going forward.

As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP. Our collective spending has powered the economy since the COVID-19 pandemic and proven wrong the 2022 and 2023 recession predictions by economists and investors. I like to call it the most telegraphed recession that never happened.

Brad here. As many of you know, I have been working on a much wider range of things here at Commonwealth, and as such, I have stepped back from a lot of the public-facing work I was doing. And that was fine as long as everything was going well. But when things become uncertain, we need someone to be able to explain what is happening—and why.

When kids are young, they don’t ask for much—maybe a toy car or a new puzzle will keep them happy. But as they get older, the requests always seem to get bigger. Those toys and puzzles become more complicated video games, LEGO, or designer clothes and are invariably something we, the adults, never had as kids.

From beginning to end, the 2024 election cycle will be looked back on as historic. It was hard fought and contentious on both sides. But at the end of the day, polls and political pundits don’t decide elections—voters do.

In the most recent Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (October 2024), managers were asked what they considered the biggest “tail risk.” Their answer: geopolitical conflict. So, if you’ve been thinking about geopolitical risks and their potential effect on portfolios, you are certainly not alone.

“The wind is rising, and the air is wild with leaves. We have had our summer evenings; now for October eves!”
— Humbert Wolfe

Anyone past a certain age knows how much easier it was to do things when they were younger. You could stay up all night to finish a project, play a pickup basketball game without stretching, and eat or drink whatever you wanted without many consequences. As we get older, though, we start to see the effects of our poor decisions but also gain the experience that can help guide us.