In this month's Market Observatory episode, Sam Millette and I discuss the dominating news story of the year: tariffs and trade policy. Uncertainty has weighed on markets and investors, and the on-again, off-again nature of these policies continues to change the range of outcomes for the economy and corporate earnings.

During periods of market volatility and declines, investors get concerned. They question their long-term objectives and whether they have more risk in their portfolios than they can tolerate. These are reasonable thoughts to have at times like these.

Last week, the S&P 500 was up 5.7%, the strongest week for the market since November 2023. The Nasdaq rose 7.3%, which was the best week for that index since November 2022. The rally was a result of President Trump’s announcement that he was pausing reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. And while there was no relief for China and the back-and-forth escalation between the two countries, markets latched onto the good news and rallied after a tough couple of months for equity investors. 

The markets are in the middle of a historic decline. Not so much in the magnitude—while we are approaching a bear market, these happen fairly regularly—but in the speed of the drop. We have rarely, if ever, seen this kind of a sudden decline, especially from close to record levels. People are nervous, of course, and understandably so. But that makes it even more important to take a step back and understand how we got here because that will inform where we are going.

At the start of last week, the S&P 500 rallied three days in a row, with investors believing that the tariffs announced on Wednesday would be targeted. But with increasing expectations comes the potential for disappointment. On April 2, the much-anticipated tariff announcements arrived—and investors did not like the news. President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs across the board on all imports from all other countries, excluding Canada and Mexico. Had that been the extent of it, the market’s expectations would most likely have been met. But it also included tariffs on countries identified as bad actors when it comes to trade, which included 34 percent tariffs on China, 24 percent on Japan, and 20 percent on the EU.

The first quarter of 2025 took investors on a rollercoaster, driven by on-again, off-again tariff policy announcements. From Election Day through February 19, 2025, the S&P 500 experienced a 5.7 rally, including a 3.9 percent increase to start the year. Tariffs were initially tempered from what had been discussed on the campaign trail, and investors focused on the pro-growth elements of the Trump administration agenda.

Last week, I had the pleasure of presenting at a Commonwealth conference. I love spending time and sharing ideas with our advisors. They are the best in the business.

As of the end of trading on Thursday, March 13, the S&P 500 closed down 10 percent from its all-time high, marking an official correction. It was the first correction since October 2023—17 months ago. From an investment horizon perspective, that isn’t that long. While there wasn’t an official correction in 2024, there was an 8 percent drawdown. Still, those two years ended with the S&P 500 up 24 percent and 23 percent, respectively.

In our Market Observatory audio series, Sam Millette and I break down the latest market and economic signals that we believe will shape the month ahead. From tariffs to big tech, we share our perspective on what's happening now and what it could mean for investors going forward.

As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP. Our collective spending has powered the economy since the COVID-19 pandemic and proven wrong the 2022 and 2023 recession predictions by economists and investors. I like to call it the most telegraphed recession that never happened.