The news this past week is that there is still no sign of a national second wave of infections. The spread rate remains low, dipping under 1 percent for the first time on two days, and case growth continues to be constrained at around 20,000 per day. That being said, several states are undergoing local second waves, with case counts rising rapidly. So far, those increases have been offset by improvement elsewhere in the country. As such, these outbreaks, while severe at the local level, are not translating to a national level. This development will be something to watch moving forward, as either a further increase in case counts in the affected states or a slowdown in improvement in the other states could reverse the trend.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Last week’s economic updates showed a stabilizing economy in May, with solid results for business confidence and employment during the month as highlights. This week, important reports will focus on inflation, the rate decision from the Fed’s June meeting, and consumer confidence.

What can we expect to see with the markets by the end of the year? I discussed this and more Friday on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round.

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis, including the latest economic and market news. It was a good week in terms of virus control here in the U.S. The daily spread growth rate dropped to 1.1 percent, and the number of new cases ticked down to 20,000 per day. Still, the possibility of a second wave of infections remains, especially given the protests happening across the country. Turning to the economy, we had more good news. Layoffs continued to decline, more people returned to work, and business and consumer confidence showed signs of improvement. The markets certainly took note of these positive developments, as evidenced by the steady rise in the stock market.

The news over this past week is what has still not happened: at present, there are no signs of a second wave of infections stemming from the ongoing reopening of the economy and the loosening of social distancing measures in several states. In fact, the data shows that social distancing had been subsiding in many areas even before the formal loosening. So, we are now three weeks or more into the start of a new environment for the spread of the virus. Not only has there been no significant increase in the case growth rate, but case growth itself has trended back down to around 20,000 per day.

May was a good month, in terms of the virus, the economy, and the markets. But what does this positive news mean for the month ahead? Let’s take a closer look.

In May, we saw real progress in the coronavirus, which allowed the economy to begin reopening. Hundreds of thousands returned to work, people began to shop again, and confidence started to stabilize. In turn, U.S. markets rose to just above their long-term trend line and are now fully expecting a V-shaped recovery.

Last week’s economic updates came in mixed, with the solid results for consumer confidence in May offset by historically bad spending figures in April. Once again, this week will be packed with updates, with a focus on business confidence, international trade, and the May employment report.