---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. (57)
description: Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (57)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/In-the-News/inthenews-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/wordle-investing-and-russia/ukraine-whats-the-connection)

## [Wordle, Investing, and Russia/Ukraine: What’s the Connection?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/wordle-investing-and-russia/ukraine-whats-the-connection)

February 15, 2022

Three hot topics at once. Talk about efficiency! Beyond efficiency, though, I do think there is a fairly deep connection here—and one that is worth talking about right now.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/wordle-investing-and-russia/ukraine-whats-the-connection) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/wordle-investing-and-russia/ukraine-whats-the-connection#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monday-Update/monday-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-consumer-inflation-accelerates-in-january)

## [Monday Update: Consumer Inflation Accelerates in January](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-consumer-inflation-accelerates-in-january)

February 14, 2022

There were a number of important economic data releases last week, with a focus on international trade, consumer prices, and consumer sentiment. The reports showed that continued high levels of inflationary pressure weighed on consumer sentiment to start February. This will be a very busy week of updates, with reports scheduled to cover producer inflation, retail sales, industrial production, new home construction, and the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-consumer-inflation-accelerates-in-january) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-consumer-inflation-accelerates-in-january#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/stock-market-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/taper-tantrum-part-2)

## [Taper Tantrum Part 2?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/taper-tantrum-part-2)

February 11, 2022

Yesterday, the market sell-off continued, reportedly driven by a higher-than-expected inflation report and a comment by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard that he wanted to hike rates even faster than the market had been expecting. For a market that was already nervous about inflation and rates, it was a one-two punch. The Fed is being forced to act, by inflation, and at least one Fed member is very willing to hike rates quickly in response.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/taper-tantrum-part-2) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/taper-tantrum-part-2#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monthly-Risk/monthly-update-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-february-2022)

## [Monthly Market Risk Update: February 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-february-2022)

February 10, 2022

My colleague [Sam Millette](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette), manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-february-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-february-2022#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economic-Risk/econRisk-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-february-2022)

## [Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-february-2022)

February 9, 2022

*My colleague *[*Sam Millette*](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette)*, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-february-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-february-2022#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2022)

## [Looking Back at the Markets in January and Ahead to February 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2022)

February 8, 2022

January was a terrible month. Worries about economic damage from the Omicron wave were combined with the Fed’s perceived decision to start raising interest rates based on inflation levels at a 40-year high. Stocks were knocked down around the world. Tech stocks got hit especially hard, but even fixed income was down. It really was a terrible month.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2022#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monday-Update/monday-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-january-jobs-report-surges-past-expectations)

## [Monday Update: January Jobs Report Surges Past Expectations](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-january-jobs-report-surges-past-expectations)

February 7, 2022

Last week’s important economic data releases included January’s business confidence and employment reports. The January jobs report was a highlight, as it showed the economy added significantly more jobs than expected throughout the end of 2021 and start of 2022. Among the updates to come this week, the focus will be on international trade, consumer prices, and consumer sentiment.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-january-jobs-report-surges-past-expectations) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-january-jobs-report-surges-past-expectations#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Jobs/employment-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/strangest-jobs-report-ever)

## [Strangest Jobs Report Ever?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/strangest-jobs-report-ever)

February 4, 2022

Wow. I have rarely been so wrong about an [economic report](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/signs-say-terrible-jobs-report-ahead)—or so glad to be wrong. And it wasn’t just me. The range of expected values for today’s jobs report was roughly between -400,000 and +250,000. Everyone was very wrong as it came in at +467,000. This was a much, much larger-than-expected gain, and it clearly shows there is something going on that analysts are missing.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/strangest-jobs-report-ever) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/strangest-jobs-report-ever#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Jobs/employment-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/signs-say-terrible-jobs-report-ahead)

## [Signs Say Terrible Jobs Report Ahead](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/signs-say-terrible-jobs-report-ahead)

February 3, 2022

The official jobs report comes out this Friday. Expectations are for another slowdown, with about 175,000 jobs added, down from 199,000 in December. With everything that is going on, especially the number of people who have the Omicron variant and are presumably not at work, that would be a great result. Unfortunately, the real number is likely to be well below that and will probably be negative—maybe significantly so.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/signs-say-terrible-jobs-report-ahead) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/signs-say-terrible-jobs-report-ahead#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Intl-Markets/intl-markets-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/russia-ukraine-tensions-implications-for-investors)

## [Russia-Ukraine Tensions: Implications for Investors](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/russia-ukraine-tensions-implications-for-investors)

February 2, 2022

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are showing no signs of abating. The geopolitical implications of further escalation could be quite dire and complicated. Although the deadlock may be resolved through diplomacy, we are watching for the impact on asset prices if the conflict escalates. Energy and commodity markets could be in the immediate line of fire, but repercussions may also be felt in the region’s equity and fixed income markets. Finally, if the situation worsens, the ripple effects could be more broad-based and have an impact on global inflation expectations and monetary policy.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/russia-ukraine-tensions-implications-for-investors) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/russia-ukraine-tensions-implications-for-investors#comments-listing)

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- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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