Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

We're excited to roll out a new and improved format for our Monthly Market Risk Update (just like we did with our Economic Risk Factor Update last week). Each month, we will continue to review the biggest market risk factors, but we’ll do so in a SlideShare format we hope you will find both easy to read and informative. Let’s take a closer look.

Yesterday’s inflation print was a big surprise—a bad one. Yet, looking at the headlines, you could be forgiven for wondering why. The headline CPI, after all, increased by only 0.1 percent, after being flat the prior month. If we annualize those two months, the inflation rate would be only 0.6 percent per year, which is the opposite of what everyone is panicking about. It isn’t that simple, of course. But given that and the fact that inflation for the past 12 months was down from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent, it would seem inflation is slowing. So, why the panic?

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

We're excited to roll out a new and improved format for our Economic Risk Factor Update. Each month, we will continue to review the biggest risk factors to the economy, but we’ll do so in a SlideShare format we hope you will find both easy to read and informative. Let’s take a closer look.

August was a resumption of the earlier pullback after a surprisingly strong July. The S&P 500 lost 4.08 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 3.72 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.53 percent. Markets resumed their downward trend for the year, bouncing, in some cases, off long-term trend lines. Internationally, developed markets fell, although emerging markets eked out a small gain.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

After a strong rebound in July, markets pulled back again in August. U.S. and developed international markets ended the month down by 3 percent to 5 percent, and fixed income declined. The primary driver here was rising rates. Higher rates provide for lower stock market values, and with fears of a recession taking down expected earnings, the market had a double whammy. Still, there was good economic news. Job growth beat expectations, and consumer and producer inflation showed signs of peaking.

I have been saying for some time now that, as long as job growth remains strong, a recession simply isn’t likely. So far, that has played out, but the same question comes up every month: will job growth remain strong? We’ll find out on Friday whether that is still the case.

The big question on everyone’s mind is, why is the market going down? The answer, in short, is interest rates. Interest rates are up. When rates go up, stocks tend to go down. And this takes us to the next question: why are interest rates up—and will they continue to rise?