There has been a lot of uncertainty in the economy and a lot of volatility in the financial markets. Recently, that has been good; the bump after the fiscal cliff deal took us to a five-year high. Clearly, the expectation in the stock market is that uncertainty has been reduced, problems have been solved, and we have clear sailing ahead.

One question that has come up repeatedly when I talk with advisors and clients is whether inflation is coming. The answer is simple, if perhaps unexpected: hopefully, it is. What? Why on earth would we want inflation?

Over the past couple of weeks, significant progress in financial regulation has been made at both the U.S. and international levels, and most people don’t care. (Nor should they, in many ways.) Yet, there have been a couple of developments that are relevant to the average person.

First, though, let’s look at a broad picture of why banks matter. If the country had to operate with each individual or business using its own assets, growth would be very limited. Banks (or other lending institutions, but let’s keep it simple) allow those with extra capital to provide it, for a fee, to those who need the capital and are willing and able to pay for it. The bank acts as an intermediary and takes its own fees. Everyone benefits: the depositor, who gets paid; the borrower, who gets access to capital; and the bank, which also gets paid.

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“The tax issue is finished, over, completed.” — Mitch McConnell

“The tax issue is resolved.” — John Boehner

— Guest post from Peter Essele, senior investment research analyst

Traditionally, to make prognostications concerning the direction of the economy, investors and economists alike tend to look at the total change for nonfarm payrolls on a monthly basis. Commonwealth’s Asset Management team has developed the metric shown here, which is a slightly different way of looking at the same data.

I have spent a couple of days talking about the situation in Washington, and now it’s time to take another look at the country as a whole. Despite the fun and games in D.C., the real economy continues to improve in multiple ways. Let’s take a look at some.

First, employment. Today’s data shows that, overall, 155,000 jobs were added in December, just matching population growth. This is a reasonable number that should keep the unemployment rate stable, and that is what happened. Unemployment stayed steady at 7.8 percent, and the underemployment rate (which I prefer) remained stable at 14.4 percent. Not great news, but given the fiscal cliff uncertainty, not terrible either.

Much of today’s press coverage highlights the points I made yesterday—that is, how the fiscal cliff deal hasn’t really solved any of the problems and just sets the table for the next crisis in a couple of months. All true, but we are where we are.

Now, the question is this: How do we prepare for and resolve the next crisis? I think everyone agrees this is no way to run a railroad. What we’ve learned in the latest debacle, though, is that there is a way around the current dysfunction.

A year that investors can celebrate

The news this morning is that at the last minute, after actually going over the cliff, our government officials have successfully covered their butts and kicked the can down the road for another two months. If that doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement, it isn’t.

Let’s look at what the legislation actually does. Today, the Washington Post published a good cheat sheet.