The Independent Market Observer

1/4/13 – Underlying Economy Continues to Improve

January 4, 2013

I have spent a couple of days talking about the situation in Washington, and now it’s time to take another look at the country as a whole. Despite the fun and games in D.C., the real economy continues to improve in multiple ways. Let’s take a look at some.

First, employment. Today’s data shows that, overall, 155,000 jobs were added in December, just matching population growth. This is a reasonable number that should keep the unemployment rate stable, and that is what happened. Unemployment stayed steady at 7.8 percent, and the underemployment rate (which I prefer) remained stable at 14.4 percent. Not great news, but given the fiscal cliff uncertainty, not terrible either.

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1/3/13 – What Comes Next

January 3, 2013

Much of today’s press coverage highlights the points I made yesterday—that is, how the fiscal cliff deal hasn’t really solved any of the problems and just sets the table for the next crisis in a couple of months. All true, but we are where we are.

Now, the question is this: How do we prepare for and resolve the next crisis? I think everyone agrees this is no way to run a railroad. What we’ve learned in the latest debacle, though, is that there is a way around the current dysfunction.

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Market Update for the Quarter Ending December 31, 2012

January 3, 2013

A year that investors can celebrate

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1/2/13 - Hooray

January 2, 2013

The news this morning is that at the last minute, after actually going over the cliff, our government officials have successfully covered their butts and kicked the can down the road for another two months. If that doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement, it isn’t.

Let’s look at what the legislation actually does. Today, the Washington Post published a good cheat sheet.

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12/31/12 – Here We Go

December 31, 2012

At the end, when all’s said and done, much more is said than done. Today, the deadline for averting the fiscal cliff, we certainly see that in spades.

It’s not the end of the world—that will be next year, if Congress refuses to raise the debt limit and the U.S. defaults—but it isn’t good.

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12/28/12 - The Anti-Incumbent Party

December 28, 2012

The stories today are all around the fiscal cliff, of course, and the woeful inability of Congress to accomplish anything other than trying to shift the blame. One of the most annoying memes is how annoyed the representatives are to be stuck in Washington over the holidays.

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12/27/12 - Back to DEFCON 1?

December 27, 2012

Back in 2011, during the last debt ceiling debate, the U.S. went into what could reasonably be described as potential default territory. We are nowhere near as close to that as we were then, but we are starting the downward slide, with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner quoted over the weekend as saying that we will hit the federal borrowing limit on Monday (i.e., New Year’s Eve), which is to say in a couple days.

At that point, the Treasury will start to take certain “emergency” measures—I put that in quotation marks because we were here in 2012, and the only emergency is Congress’s unwillingness to act—which will allow the government to pay its bills for a limited time, probably a couple months, and avoid a full-blown debt crisis for that period. Timing is uncertain because it depends largely on the tax and spending agreements reached with respect to the fiscal cliff. How much money is raised and spent will be critical in determining how long the Treasury can juggle bill payments. We won’t know that until—and if—Congress acts on the fiscal cliff.

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12/26/12 - The Germans Will Solve the Euro Problem

December 26, 2012

I have renewed confidence about the ability of the Germans to solve any and all problems associated with the euro, after spending several hours yesterday building a play castle for my son.

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12/24/12 - Christmas Cheer

December 24, 2012

I have always loved Christmas. But as I grew older, as much as I loved it, I think I lost much of the spirit. Now that I have a four-year-old son—who is wrestling with the stress of being good under the eye of the “Elf on the Shelf,” eying presents under the tree, and baking cookies with his mom—I find myself recovering much of what I had lost. This is wonderful, but, as a father, I also find myself reaching deeper into the meaning of the holiday.

The idea of sacrifice is at the heart of both Judaism and Christianity, and the notion of a father sacrificing his son is fundamental. Christmas itself, where the Christ child is born into the world, is the start of just that sacrifice. I literally cannot fathom making that kind of sacrifice—of giving up my son. At the same time, I understand just how much I would sacrifice for him.

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12/21/12 – Sale of the NYSE Reflects a Changing World

December 21, 2012

I just finished a book on nuclear strategy in the post-Cold War era and have been planning to review it. I will still do so, probably next week, but find myself somewhat overtaken by events, as many of the points the book makes, and that I wanted to highlight, are critical to the just-announced sale of the New York Stock Exchange. Bear with me as I walk through some of them.

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