The Independent Market Observer

1/8/13 – Financial Regulation and Why It Matters

January 8, 2013

Over the past couple of weeks, significant progress in financial regulation has been made at both the U.S. and international levels, and most people don’t care. (Nor should they, in many ways.) Yet, there have been a couple of developments that are relevant to the average person.

First, though, let’s look at a broad picture of why banks matter. If the country had to operate with each individual or business using its own assets, growth would be very limited. Banks (or other lending institutions, but let’s keep it simple) allow those with extra capital to provide it, for a fee, to those who need the capital and are willing and able to pay for it. The bank acts as an intermediary and takes its own fees. Everyone benefits: the depositor, who gets paid; the borrower, who gets access to capital; and the bank, which also gets paid.

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1/7/13 - January 2013 Market Thoughts Video

January 7, 2013

[youtube=http://youtu.be/vEkJUlE8-CI?rel=0hd=1]

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1/7/13 - It Starts Today

January 7, 2013

“The tax issue is finished, over, completed.” — Mitch McConnell

“The tax issue is resolved.” — John Boehner

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1/4/13 – A Different Way to Look at Nonfarm Payroll Sectors

January 4, 2013

Guest post from Peter Essele, senior investment research analyst

Traditionally, to make prognostications concerning the direction of the economy, investors and economists alike tend to look at the total change for nonfarm payrolls on a monthly basis. Commonwealth’s Asset Management team has developed the metric shown here, which is a slightly different way of looking at the same data.

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1/4/13 – Underlying Economy Continues to Improve

January 4, 2013

I have spent a couple of days talking about the situation in Washington, and now it’s time to take another look at the country as a whole. Despite the fun and games in D.C., the real economy continues to improve in multiple ways. Let’s take a look at some.

First, employment. Today’s data shows that, overall, 155,000 jobs were added in December, just matching population growth. This is a reasonable number that should keep the unemployment rate stable, and that is what happened. Unemployment stayed steady at 7.8 percent, and the underemployment rate (which I prefer) remained stable at 14.4 percent. Not great news, but given the fiscal cliff uncertainty, not terrible either.

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1/3/13 – What Comes Next

January 3, 2013

Much of today’s press coverage highlights the points I made yesterday—that is, how the fiscal cliff deal hasn’t really solved any of the problems and just sets the table for the next crisis in a couple of months. All true, but we are where we are.

Now, the question is this: How do we prepare for and resolve the next crisis? I think everyone agrees this is no way to run a railroad. What we’ve learned in the latest debacle, though, is that there is a way around the current dysfunction.

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Market Update for the Quarter Ending December 31, 2012

January 3, 2013

A year that investors can celebrate

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1/2/13 - Hooray

January 2, 2013

The news this morning is that at the last minute, after actually going over the cliff, our government officials have successfully covered their butts and kicked the can down the road for another two months. If that doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement, it isn’t.

Let’s look at what the legislation actually does. Today, the Washington Post published a good cheat sheet.

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12/31/12 – Here We Go

December 31, 2012

At the end, when all’s said and done, much more is said than done. Today, the deadline for averting the fiscal cliff, we certainly see that in spades.

It’s not the end of the world—that will be next year, if Congress refuses to raise the debt limit and the U.S. defaults—but it isn’t good.

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12/28/12 - The Anti-Incumbent Party

December 28, 2012

The stories today are all around the fiscal cliff, of course, and the woeful inability of Congress to accomplish anything other than trying to shift the blame. One of the most annoying memes is how annoyed the representatives are to be stuck in Washington over the holidays.

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