The Independent Market Observer

2/24/14 - Enjoying the Melt-Up

February 24, 2014

There is a real asymmetry about how we treat market ups and downs. In the past couple of weeks, when the market dropped around 1 percent, I got phone calls from advisors and reporters asking why. How could this happen? Today, when the market is up about 1 percent, no calls at all. According to the Wall Street Journal, we are back at record highs, have erased all the losses so far in 2014, and all is right with the world.

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2/21/14 – Minimum Wages, Corporate Taxes, and Profit Margins

February 21, 2014

As I’ve written many times before, profit margins are at or close to all-time highs. The reasons are many, but among the most significant are low wage growth (which has kept labor costs down), low effective (not face!) tax rates, and low interest rates. The argument that current equity valuations are reasonable implicitly assumes that these conditions will remain constant for the medium-term future, and I have had a problem with that.

So far, of course, I’ve been wrong. But I’m okay with it, because I expect over time to be right, and the trends are starting to indicate that might be happening. This week alone, several events have suggested these factors may become less favorable to business profits.

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2/20/14 – Reader Question: Emerging Markets and U.S. Equities

February 20, 2014

Today’s topic is a particularly good and timely question from a reader:

“Why would economic problems in other countries, especially smaller, emerging markets, cause a drop in the U.S. equities market?”

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2/19/14 – Consumer Spending Trumps All: Minimum Wages and Borrowing

February 19, 2014

We have two interesting things to look at today: a report from the Congressional Budget Office on the effects of a higher minimum wage, and a report that consumer borrowing has ticked up as banks become more willing to lend.

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2/18/14 – Party Like It’s 1929

February 18, 2014

I’ve been getting more “disaster chic” questions recently, and I thought I’d get ahead of what I expect will be the next driver of such concerns. Over the weekend, Mark Hulbert wrote a column about a scary chart that’s making the rounds, showing very real similarities between the way the market behaved before the crash in 1929 and right now.

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2/14/14 – Bad Weather and Good Karma

February 14, 2014

First, a shout-out to my wife, Nora, who’s been stuck with the snow for the past two weeks while I’ve been traveling. She’s done a lot of work and a great job, and I am extremely grateful. Happy Valentine’s Day, sweetheart!

The bad weather has actually been an occasion for good karma. I’ve spent quite a bit of time over the past couple of years helping neighbors clear snow; it’s just the right thing to do for a lot of reasons. Yesterday, while waiting at the airport, I got a delighted text from Nora that someone had plowed our driveway, and when she and Jackson got home, the job was largely done. That was a wonderful surprise. Karma works, although sometimes it can take a while.

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2/13/14 – Why Growth Will Persist

February 13, 2014

I have written before about the work of Professor Robert Gordon and others, who are projecting much lower growth in the next hundred years than in the past. The rationale, briefly, is that all of the easy gains have been taken. The world will not be electrified again. Agriculture has already been largely mechanized. Labor-saving inventions, like the washing machine, have already fully penetrated the developed nations and are working their way through the emerging markets. At some point in the not-too-distant future, it will be possible to satisfy people’s material needs fully.

With population growth topping out, as it is, and with material needs on their way to being addressed, will growth even be necessary? Imagine a world with a stable population, where everyone has enough material goods—what growth would we need? What would growth even mean in that context? Even if Gordon was right, would it matter?

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2/11/14 – What to Do About Janet Yellen

February 11, 2014

When Janet Yellen testifies to Congress for the first time as chair of the Federal Reserve, she will have a very unusual second chance to make a first impression.

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2/10/14 – The “I Quit” Ad and Other Employment Indicators

February 10, 2014

One of the more interesting ads in a generally disappointing Super Bowl—I know I wasn’t the only one looking forward to a much more exciting confrontation between the number-one offense and the number-one defense—was the puppet-maker who supposedly quit her job on national TV. I have to say, if it was real, it took guts. If the new business doesn’t work out, she may have a hard time going back.

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2/7/14 – Things to Pay Attention to

February 7, 2014

With regard to the title, I am aware of the rule that says never end a sentence with a preposition. But I stand with no less an authority than Winston Churchill in saying that this is the sort of nonsense rule up with which I shall not put. So there.

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