Today’s post comes from guest contributor Eduardo Ciuffo, a Commonwealth investment research analyst focused on real assets.

Today’s post is by guest contributor Peter Essele, a portfolio manager on Commonwealth’s Preferred Portfolio Services^® Select platform.

"Does the high level of fund flows into the most popular indices make them perform better simply due to supply/demand 101?"

Last week’s limited economic data showed that consumers may be taking a break from spending, at least for the moment. Given a smaller-than-expected bounce back in confidence and a disappointing retail sales report, we need to keep an eye on whether consumer spending will continue to drive economic growth.

A note for my regular readers: I am taking the next two weeks off to spend time with my family. I won't be totally out of touch—I will still write the Monday Update—but I am turning the blog over to some of my colleagues so you can see what great work they do. For the next two weeks, you'll find new posts here on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday; we will return to the usual daily schedule on Monday, August 29. Until then, take care! — Brad

Yesterday we talked about productivity and growth, with a sidelight on how recent low levels of growth are largely due to low business investment. Although that is certainly true, there’s more to the story.

Let’s take a deeper look at where growth has come from during this recovery and what that might mean for the future.

Words are funny. We talk about pros and cons, and everyone has heard the line about the opposite of progress being Congress. But what is the opposite of productivity? Surely it isn’t conductivity.

Whatever you call it, what we’re seeing in the economy is, in many ways, the opposite of productivity growth.

Just as I do with the economy, I review the stock market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future.

Last week’s data showed that, despite a small pullback from the previous month, business confidence remains positive across the board. Consumers also continued to demonstrate their confidence by spending. Finally, the jobs report came as a very positive surprise, suggesting that consumers are both willing and able to keep doing their bit for the economy.

The economic news this month remains good, largely validating last month’s positive moves and increasing the chance that recent downward trends are changing. Although two months of data aren’t quite enough to declare victory—particularly since some gains were given back—the continuation of the positive trends is very encouraging.

The big news of the week will be the employment report for July, set for release tomorrow. U.S. consumers remain confident and business remains in the dumps, so the future really depends on whether consumers continue to feel good and whether businesses manage to expand.