What does a data-dependent Fed do when the data isn't available? In this month's episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I discuss how the government shutdown is affecting the central bank and investors, including:

As of midnight Tuesday, the U.S. government shut down, as lawmakers couldn’t reach an agreement on a short-term bill to continue funding government expenditures. Currently, none of the 12 appropriations bills have been passed. This is the first shutdown since December 2018. There is certainly a human element to consider, as many government workers will be furloughed and others will continue to work without pay. Benefit payments and tax collections will continue. 

September was another positive month for markets, as the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq set new record highs. The international story was similar, with developed and emerging markets gaining for the month. Short-term interest rates also fell in September, as the Fed resumed cutting rates at its mid-month meeting. Markets anticipate one or two additional rate cuts by year-end.

This week’s Fed meeting resulted in a much-anticipated interest rate reduction of 25 bps, to a range of 4 percent to 4.25 percent. This move followed a nine-month pause in its rate-cutting cycle, which began a year ago. Historically, equity markets have responded favorably to rate cuts after a pause of six months or more. But it’s been a while since we last saw this pattern. The Fed has not resumed a reduction cycle after a lag of that duration since July 2003. Markets have changed a lot since then. 

With the latest jobs data weaker than expected, many—including the equity markets—are counting on a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting. In this month's episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I discuss what's ahead, including:

Despite volatility early on, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq were up low- to mid-single digits for August. These results brought markets to record highs and indicated continued investor demand for U.S. stocks. International stocks also ended the month in positive territory, as risk assets rallied. Even bonds were up, as falling interest rates supported bond prices.

After a volatile first four months of 2025, it was a good summer for investors to go on vacation, as markets, for the most part, went up weekly. In fact, the major equity indices closed August near their all-time highs.

In this month's episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I break down the latest market and economic news, including:

As July gave way to August, an eventful news week moved markets. Corporate earnings continued to surprise to the upside. They are now showing roughly 10 percent year-over-year growth versus expectations of 4.9 percent at the start of the quarter. The first look at Q2 GDP growth came in at 3 percent, which also exceeded the consensus estimates of 2.5 percent. As an offset to this upbeat news, tariffs continue to be seen in the daily headlines. Further, July’s jobs report came in below consensus, with large downward revisions to previous months. 

The market rally continued in July, as strong corporate earnings growth and optimism on trade lifted stocks. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq were all up low single digits for the month. The story was mixed internationally, with developed international stocks down while emerging markets rallied for the third straight month. Turning to the economy, the news was broadly positive. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 3 percent in the second quarter, beating expectations and signaling a healthy economic backdrop.