The September reports showed signs of continued economic growth to start the fall. Hiring accelerated during the month, with 336,000 jobs added, coming in well above economist estimates. That said, the yield curve remained in red territory, and service sector and consumer confidence declined.

Stock markets dropped for the second month in a row in September, closing out a weak quarter for financial markets. The U.S. indices were down in the mid-single digits, which brought markets to low-single-digit losses for the quarter and took the Dow below its 200-day moving average. International markets also pulled back for the month and quarter by roughly the same amounts. Even fixed income was down, with a substantial increase in interest rates. Financial markets were clearly in a risk-off mode.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

There were two stories that mattered this week: interest rates and the jobs report for September. For the week as a whole, rate increases seem to have taken away from markets, as they tanked on an increase in the U.S. 10-year yield from about 4.6 percent to 4.8 percent. Clearly, higher rates meant a recession—and that’s bad for the market, right? But then this morning’s jobs report came in much stronger than expected, with 336,000 new jobs, about twice as many as anticipated. With prior months also being revised up substantially, clearly the economy is doing much better than we thought—even with the higher interest rates—and a recession is still some ways off.

In my last blog post, the topic of discussion was the bumpy ride markets took in August but how historical data indicated a potentially strong finish to the year. Indeed, August was tough, but September was even worse. As a result, many investors have growing concerns about the current state of the markets—a normal reaction, to be sure.

U.S. indices were down for the second consecutive month, with the Nasdaq doing the worst. International markets pulled back, and fixed income was also down. That said, job growth remained healthy, consumer confidence and spending grew, and business investment came in strong. 

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Last week was all about financial factors, primarily interest rates. But this week was all about the real economy, notably the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the pending government shutdown. Indeed, worries about a recession rose on those two risks. And while interest rates ticked up a bit, it was much less than last week and generally within a range. The same applies to financial markets as well.

We are getting close to the decision point on whether large parts of the government will shut down again because Congress has not passed a budget. While the Senate has come up with a plan, the House has not even been able to start considering one, which means the government will lack funding and will largely shut down, as of October 1. Given the dysfunction in Washington DC, at this point that shutdown looks likely, which means we must think through the consequences.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.