Last week, the news was largely about inflation, with producer and consumer prices leading the way. The week ahead will be a busy one for economic news. Reports will give us a look at consumer spending, the housing market, and industrial production and manufacturing. In other words, we’ll get an update on the entire economy.

Earnings season is here again, and expectations are high. In fact, expected growth is at the highest level since 2011, with growth expected to continue through 2019. You would anticipate markets to respond positively. So, the fact that the stock market has instead just been bouncing around is a bit concerning. What is going on—and what does it mean for the future?

It seems to me that a couple of recent news items need to be put together in a way that, so far, I have not seen. Although the idea that inflation is rising and the discussion of the Fed’s rate increases are often connected, the link to the stock market has been neglected. Let’s see if we can make that connection.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for April? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

March’s data continued to be good overall, although there was some pullback from February’s very strong reports. Job growth slowed substantially, which was the most notable concern. This is most likely not an immediate problem, however, as long-term trends remain favorable. More worrying is that while confidence remains high, the trend appears to be peaking for both consumers and business. Again, this is more of a change in trend rather than an immediate concern. Fed policy continues to be stimulative, which is helpful, despite the recent rate increase. Overall, this month’s economic data indicates that growth continues, although it may have peaked.

On Friday, I appeared on CNBC's Nightly Business Report (my segment starts at 10:19) to discuss the latest jobs report, more rate increases from the Fed, and what effect the tariffs may have on the market. Listen in to learn more.

Last week was a busy one for economic news, starting with the major business surveys. Inflation will be the focus this week, with producer and consumer prices due in the first half.

This morning, the jobs report came in with a surprising miss: the total number of jobs created dropped from 339,000 in February (including a 26,000 upward revision to the initial figure) to 103,000. This is quite a drop. At face value, it raises concerns about whether the economy has slowed dramatically. But while the headline number is weak, the report is not nearly as bad as it looks.

The first quarter of 2018 saw the end of the bull market. Not in stocks necessarily, as the upward trend remains intact, but certainly of the bull market in confidence. January was a strong month, but then the world changed. Markets dropped in early February, only to bounce and then drop again in March. Let’s review why things changed in Q1, plus what we might expect in Q2.

It has been a difficult couple of months in the stock market—and things have only gotten worse over the past couple of weeks. After the drop in early February, which took the S&P 500 down by almost 9 percent from the all-time high, the market bounced back. But it started dropping again in mid-March, which takes us to where we are right now: down 9.6 percent from early February.