Last week was a busy one for economic news, starting with the major business surveys. Inflation will be the focus this week, with producer and consumer prices due in the first half.

This morning, the jobs report came in with a surprising miss: the total number of jobs created dropped from 339,000 in February (including a 26,000 upward revision to the initial figure) to 103,000. This is quite a drop. At face value, it raises concerns about whether the economy has slowed dramatically. But while the headline number is weak, the report is not nearly as bad as it looks.

The first quarter of 2018 saw the end of the bull market. Not in stocks necessarily, as the upward trend remains intact, but certainly of the bull market in confidence. January was a strong month, but then the world changed. Markets dropped in early February, only to bounce and then drop again in March. Let’s review why things changed in Q1, plus what we might expect in Q2.

It has been a difficult couple of months in the stock market—and things have only gotten worse over the past couple of weeks. After the drop in early February, which took the S&P 500 down by almost 9 percent from the all-time high, the market bounced back. But it started dropping again in mid-March, which takes us to where we are right now: down 9.6 percent from early February.

March was a tough month, with both U.S. and international markets seeing losses. It was the second down month in a row, something we haven't seen in a while. This was due, in part, to markets becoming uncertain on the news of tariffs on China—which rattled companies around the world. Plus, Fed Chair Powell was seen as more hawkish than expected, introducing uncertainty around interest rates.

There were only two major economic reports last week, but they gave us a look at the all-important consumer. The week ahead will be a busy one for economic news, including the major business surveys.

In the first couple of years after the financial crisis, there was a lot of discussion about the “new normal.” This referred to the new environment characterized by lower interest rates, lower growth, lower inflation, and lower volatility. The sense was that things really were different this time, and we had to understand that.

I suspect that many of us are worried about the stock market. I certainly am, but what else is new? That’s why they call me Eeyore. But worrying by itself doesn’t do any good. What is important is to figure out how to worry effectively. That is, by identifying the real signs of trouble, you can focus on those and not worry until there really is something to worry about. I think we could all use a refresher on how to do this.

Wow. After a significant decline last Thursday and Friday, markets bounced back yesterday in a big way. What’s going on?

Last week’s economic news focused on the Fed and tariffs. This week, there are only two major reports, but each will give us a look at the all-important consumer.