The Independent Market Observer

What Mattered This Week? Focus on the Fed

December 15, 2023

There was a fair amount of data this week, but only one thing mattered: the Fed. Continued slowing inflation data and signs of a slowing economy took the Fed from a hawkish, we will keep rates higher-for-longer stance, to a much more dovish stance in the past meeting. The Fed's projections have switched from higher rates indefinitely to an expected three rate cuts next year, which is a very big shift. More, Chair Powell's commentary in the press conference acknowledged directly both the better inflation data and slower growth. Higher for longer may be dead—at least that’s what markets think.

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Digesting the Fed: Rates Hold Steady, but Cuts to Come?

December 14, 2023

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the third consecutive meeting, leaving its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This decision comes as no surprise, with the futures markets indicating a near-zero percent chance of a rate increase in the days and weeks leading up to the meeting.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2023 [SlideShare]

December 13, 2023

The reports released in November showed continued economic growth. Hiring accelerated, as 199,000 jobs were added in November against 150,000 jobs in October. Service sector and consumer confidence also improved modestly, but both indicators remained in yellow territory. The yield curve inversion deepened during the month, leaving that indicator red.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Accelerates in November

December 11, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? U.S. Economy Chugging Along

December 8, 2023

It was another good week for the economy, while there wasn’t a lot of news on the market front. Let’s take a closer look.

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Looking Back at the Markets in November and Ahead to December 2023

December 6, 2023

Markets improved last month across the board as interest rates pulled back on signs of slowing growth. U.S. markets were up by high-single to low-double digits, while international markets were also up by high-single digits. Even fixed income posted gains of around 5 percent. For the first time in a while, everything went up.

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Market Thoughts for December 2023 [Video]

December 4, 2023

Markets roared back in November, as interest rates dropped to September levels. U.S. indices were up from 8 percent to 11 percent, with the Nasdaq performing best. Fixed income showed surprising gains, and international markets rose sharply.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Personal Income and Spending Growth Slows

December 4, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? All About Interest Rates (Again)

December 1, 2023

What mattered this week in the economy and the markets? Let’s dive right in.

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Will December’s S&P 500 Return Matter for 2024?

November 30, 2023

In my October blog post, I concluded by stating that in an intermediate time frame, things looked shaky for markets. Still, I firmly believed that the S&P 500 was undergoing a correction and that the uptrend would resume in due course. Indeed, since October 31, the S&P 500 is up more than 8 percent and the Nasdaq is up more than 10 percent.

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