The Independent Market Observer

Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2024 [SlideShare]

January 10, 2024

The reports released in December showed solid economic growth to finish the year. Hiring accelerated, as 217,000 jobs were added in December against 179,000 jobs in November. Consumer confidence also improved notably, but service sector confidence fell. The yield curve inversion widened again in December, marking two consecutive months of an increasing inversion.

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Navigating Uncertainty: What We’re Hearing from Portfolio Managers

January 8, 2024

When I speak to folks interested in a financial services career, I tell them the best thing about it is that every day is different. This is something that the economy and the markets have made abundantly clear over the past few years. I also often think back to a TV show from the late 1990s, Early Edition, where the main character gets the newspaper the day before it’s published and uses what he’s learned to help others. In challenging times, this might prove useful in finding investment success for clients. Alas, it’s not a resource we have at our disposal. But what we do have is insight from various portfolio managers across the industry.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Accelerates in December

January 8, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Looking Back at the Markets in December and Ahead to January 2024

January 5, 2024

Markets rose last month, continuing November’s rally as interest rates pulled back even more on expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Markets in the U.S. were up by mid-single digits, finishing a solid quarter and a very strong year. International markets were also up substantially for the month, quarter, and year. And while stocks were hot, even fixed income posted enough gains to close out the year in the black. 2023 ended with a bang.

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Market Thoughts for January 2024 [Video]

January 3, 2024

Markets around the world were up from 3 percent to 6 percent last month and up by double digits across the board for the year. The lack of a recession drove these positive results, with job growth and consumer confidence remaining healthy.

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Economic Release Snapshot: A Busy Start to the Year

January 2, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Confidence on the Upswing

December 26, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Merry Christmas to All

December 22, 2023

I’ve always loved Christmas, but I think I’ve lost much of the spirit as I’ve gotten older. Now that I have a young son—who enjoys baking cookies with his mom and eyeing presents under the tree, while struggling to behave under the eye of the “Elf on the Shelf"—I find myself recovering much of what I’ve lost. This is wonderful, but, as a father, I also find myself reaching deeper into the meaning of the holiday.

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What's the Outlook for the 60/40 Portfolio?

December 21, 2023

Is it time to start thinking differently about asset allocation, or does the 60/40 portfolio still make sense? That was the question for members of our Investment Management and Research team—and the topic made for some lively discussion.

Watch the video below to hear what the team thinks about this longstanding investment strategy. And if you're looking for a broader economic and market view, click on 2024 Outlook in the sidebar to your right.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: December 2023 [SlideShare]

December 20, 2023

Equity markets rebounded in November, with all three major U.S. indices up for the month. The S&P 500 gained 9.13 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 9.15 percent in November. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, with the technology-heavy index rising 10.83 percent. Falling interest rates supported higher valuations, leading to positive returns for stocks.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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