The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Market Thoughts for January 2019 [Video]

January 2, 2019

December was another bad month in a string of bad months, with U.S. markets down about 10 percent and international markets faring only a bit better, down 5 percent to 6 percent. A combination of bad news, from a government shutdown, to the ongoing trade war, to the Fed's decision to raise rates, was enough to shake investor confidence just in time for the holidays. Still, the fundamentals continue to look strong. Has the damage been done? Stay tuned to my Market Thoughts video to find out.

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Monday Update: Confidence Drops by Most in a Year, Housing Disappoints

December 31, 2018

Despite the Christmas holiday, last week brought some important economic news. With another holiday on the horizon, this week won’t be as busy, but there are still a couple of economic reports worth paying attention to.

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2019 Market Outlook [Video]

December 28, 2018

As we approach the new year, hiring is strong and both business and consumer confidence remain high. With these solid fundamentals, the financial markets are likely to respond. Earnings should go up, so we should expect to see rising stock prices as well.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 27, 2018 [Video]

December 27, 2018

Are we still experiencing normal market volatility? I discussed this and more on CNBC's Power Lunch today. 

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Monday Update: Housing Better Than Expected, Other Indicators Disappoint

December 24, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, with several reports on housing, a look at durable goods demand, and the consumer income and spending report. This week is a short one, due to the Christmas holiday, but there are a couple of economic reports worth paying attention to.

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Fed to Markets: “Drop Dead”

December 20, 2018

Of course, here I am riffing on the famous headline published after President Ford refused to bail out New York City (see below). Yesterday, there is no doubt that markets were expecting a bailout from the Fed—and threw a tantrum when they didn’t get it.

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Pop! 2018 Bubble of the Year Award

December 19, 2018

It’s that moment you’ve all been waiting for—the 2018 Bubble of the Year Award (“the Bubby”)! This long-standing tradition (as of last year) brings together the strongest and weakest investment stories for a no-holds-barred match to see which stands out as the bubble of the year. This year, we have several strong contestants.

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Consumer Debt: Not as Bad as You Think?

December 18, 2018

Several weeks ago, an advisor asked me to take a deep look at debt in the economy. I thought this was a great idea, both timely and important. In fact, I meant to get to it sooner but, well, things happened. When I did start to investigate, I realized that “debt” was many different topics, deserving of several posts. So, here we are, beginning a series that will resume in January. Fortunately, the news is not actually all that bad in most areas. Even in the ones where it is very bad (e.g., U.S. government borrowing), there are reasons to, if not be cheerful, than at least not to despair.

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Monday Update: Inflation a Bit High, Consumers Earning and Spending

December 17, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, starting with prices. This week will also be active, with several reports on housing, a look at durable goods demand, and the consumer income and spending report.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: December 2018

December 14, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for December? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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