The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth and investment management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is the primary spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Looking Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June 2020

June 3, 2020

May was a good month, in terms of the virus, the economy, and the markets. But what does this positive news mean for the month ahead? Let’s take a closer look.

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Market Thoughts for June 2020 [Video]

June 2, 2020

In May, we saw real progress in the coronavirus, which allowed the economy to begin reopening. Hundreds of thousands returned to work, people began to shop again, and confidence started to stabilize. In turn, U.S. markets rose to just above their long-term trend line and are now fully expecting a V-shaped recovery.

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Coronavirus Update: May 29, 2020 [Video]

May 29, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus pandemic, including the economic and market implications. We had some good news in the past week, as there were no signs of a second wave of infections even as the economy continued to reopen. The daily spread rate remained at 1.5 percent per day in 9 of the past 10 days, bringing us to the lowest level since the pandemic started. Plus, the daily case growth continued to hold steady, and the number of active cases has begun to level off. On the economic front, layoffs continued to decrease, and people have started returning to work. We’re also seeing positive signs that consumers have the confidence to spend, as shown in the uptick in restaurant bookings and mortgage applications.

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What’s (Not) Happening in the Coronavirus Crisis?

May 28, 2020

The big news this past week has been what has not happened: there are, at present, no signs of a second wave of infections stemming from the ongoing reopening of the economy and the loosening of social distancing measures in several states. In fact, the data shows that social distancing had been subsiding in many areas even before the formal loosening. So, we are now two weeks or more into the start of a new environment for the spread of the virus. While it is still early in the process, some growth in cases could have been expected. The fact that we have continued to see the spread rates at close to the lowest levels of the pandemic is positive.

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move, May 28, 2020 [Video]

May 28, 2020

How has the coronavirus impacted jobless claims and the markets? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move.

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COVID-19: What We Know and How We Know It

May 27, 2020

Recently, I’ve gotten some questions on news reports that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and many states have been conflating two different types of COVID-19 tests in their reporting. The substance of both the news reports and the subsequent questions was that this conflation made the data unreliable and that the situation could be worse—with respect to the virus and the pandemic—than we had thought. Indeed, it is a reasonable concern. And given that I use various coronavirus data here on the blog, I thought it would be worth writing about what we know about the virus and how we know it.

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Appearance on CNBC's The Exchange, May 22, 2020 [Video]

May 26, 2020

Last Friday, I appeared on CNBC’s The Exchange to discuss the economy and the markets. Listen in to hear more.

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Coronavirus Update: May 22, 2020 [Video]

May 22, 2020

Today, I'd like to give an update on the coronavirus pandemic, including its effects on the economy and markets. There was some good news on the pandemic front, with daily testing numbers continuing to rise. We didn’t see as much progress in the daily spread rate and the number of new cases, with both remaining relatively stable. Here, the results may be better than they look, as we didn’t get a bump in new cases even though the economy started to reopen. In fact, the economic reopening seems to be going better than many expected. The restaurant business has started to tick up, and mortgage applications have just about returned to 2019 levels.

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Is the Latest Coronavirus News Better Than It Looks?

May 21, 2020

This past week revealed a mix of improvement and stabilization in the COVID-19 pandemic. While testing continues to expand, the progress in slowing the spread rate and case growth has stalled, leaving both at levels consistent with the past two weeks. The number of active cases has started to grow again, which is a negative. Overall, conditions remain much better than they have been in recent weeks, but we did not see much, if any, additional progress in controlling the virus.

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Coronavirus Update: May 15, 2020 [Video]

May 15, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus crisis, including the economic and market implications. It was another good week in terms of controlling the virus, with the daily spread rate dropping to less than 2 percent for five days in a row. Plus, testing increased to more than 300,000 tests per day, and the number of new cases per day continued to decline significantly. Similar progress was seen on the economic front. Layoffs continued, but millions of people have started to return to work—one of the positive effects of the reopening process. Of course, risks remain, with a second wave of infections looming the largest. But the foundation of the economy is starting to be rebuilt.

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