---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP® (41)
description: Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief economist at Commonwealth. As chief economist, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog. (41)
---

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## Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/McMillan_Brad@2x.png?width=100&name=McMillan_Brad@2x.png)

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief economist at Commonwealth. As chief economist, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.

Find me on:

[![](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/linkedin-24x24.png)](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [![](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/twitter-24x24.png)](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA)

### Recent Posts

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/2021-02-19_11-55-03.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-february-19-2021-video)

## [Coronavirus Update: February 19, 2021 \[Video\]](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-february-19-2021-video)

February 19, 2021

Today I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, we appear to be well past the peak of the third wave, with daily infection rates and hospitalizations down. A more contagious variant of the virus could start another wave of infections, although there are no signs of that happening yet.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-february-19-2021-video) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-february-19-2021-video#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/In-the-News/inthenews-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-news-showing-surprising-strength)

## [Economic News Showing Surprising Strength](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-news-showing-surprising-strength)

February 18, 2021

*\*Starting next week, February 25, I’ll be publishing my coronavirus update every other week.*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-news-showing-surprising-strength) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-news-showing-surprising-strength#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/StockMarket_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-february-2021)

## [Monthly Market Risk Update: February 2021](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-february-2021)

February 12, 2021

*My colleague* [*Sam Millette*](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette)*, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!*

Markets took a breather in January, as month-end volatility led to a mixed month for major equity indices to start the year. This volatility caused the S&P 500 to decline by 1.01 percent during the month, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.95 percent. The Nasdaq Composite managed to record a 1.44 percent gain. While we have seen markets largely recover to start February, the month-end volatility is a good reminder of the risks markets continue to face.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-february-2021) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-february-2021#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/stock-market-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-positive-market-trends-continue)

## [Will Positive Market Trends Continue?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-positive-market-trends-continue)

February 11, 2021

For the third week in a row, the big picture continues to be very positive. On the medical front, all three major data series—new cases, positive testing rates, and hospitalizations—have continued to trend down, while vaccinations continue to scale up. If current trends continue, we are through the worst of the pandemic and should see continued improvement.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-positive-market-trends-continue) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-positive-market-trends-continue#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economic-Risk/econRisk-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-february-2021)

## [Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2021](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-february-2021)

February 10, 2021

*My colleague [Sam Millette](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette), senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!*

The economy showed moderate growth in January, despite the lingering headwind of the third wave of the pandemic. There were signs toward month-end that federal stimulus and an improving public health picture started to have a positive impact on the economic recovery, with a return to job growth and increases in business and consumer confidence. Reflecting the improvements, long-term interest rates also began to show signs of normalization.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-february-2021) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-february-2021#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2021)

## [Looking Back at the Markets in January and Ahead to February 2021](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2021)

February 9, 2021

January was a month of transition. Markets took a break, with small gains or declines. The presidential inauguration handed the reins from the Trump administration to the Biden administration. Winter finally arrived, at least here in Massachusetts. And with the start of mass vaccinations, we began the transition to get past the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2021) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2021#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/2021-02-05_11-21-33.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-february-5-2021-video)

## [Coronavirus Update: February 5, 2021 \[Video\]](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-february-5-2021-video)

February 5, 2021

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, new daily infection rates and hospitalizations were down, and we saw improvement in positive testing rates. Although the threat of a more contagious variant of the virus remains, substantial progress on vaccinations should help offset that risk.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-february-5-2021-video) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-february-5-2021-video#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economy/econ-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-damage-starting-to-moderate)

## [Economic Damage Starting to Moderate](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-damage-starting-to-moderate)

February 4, 2021

For the second week in a row, the big picture continues to be very positive. On the medical front, all three major data series—new cases, positive testing rates, and hospitalizations—have continued to trend down, while vaccinations continue to scale up. If current trends continue, we are through the worst of the pandemic and should see continued improvement.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-damage-starting-to-moderate) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-damage-starting-to-moderate#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/ahoy-inflation-ahead)

## [Ahoy, Inflation Ahead?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/ahoy-inflation-ahead)

February 3, 2021

Recently, I have been getting a number of questions about inflation. Is it coming? How bad will it be? And, of course, what should I do about it? It has been interesting, because inflation has been largely off the radar for some years—it simply has not been a problem. What has been driving the concern now seems to be worries about the effects of the federal stimulus programs, which many think will drive more inflation. But I don’t think so. To show why, let’s go back to history.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/ahoy-inflation-ahead) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/ahoy-inflation-ahead#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/screenshot_945%20x%20529%20px.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-february-2021-video)

## [Market Thoughts for February 2021 \[Video\]](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-february-2021-video)

February 2, 2021

Most developed markets were down slightly in January, including the Dow and S&P 500 in the U.S., as well as developed markets abroad. Despite the month's weak numbers, markets remain near all-time highs. On the economic front, layoffs were high and retail spending dropped. But with federal stimulus payments, consumer confidence has begun to recover, boosting higher-frequency spending data.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-february-2021-video) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-february-2021-video#comments-listing)

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- [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12)
- [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11)
- [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10)
- [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09)
- [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08)
- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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