The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 3

May 20, 2015

In this last post on rising interest rates, let's talk about what everyone really wants to know: What do rising rates mean for our investments? As we discussed yesterday, a rate hike probably isn’t imminent, but it’s certainly worth thinking about to get ahead of the risk.

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What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 2

May 19, 2015

Yesterday, we discussed what the natural interest rate should be, arriving at about 5 percent on a nominal basis, assuming 2-percent inflation. That seems like a reasonable number over time, given that the Federal Reserve has committed to an inflation target of 2 percent. But with interest rates currently far below 3 percent, there’s clearly a gap between what the rate should be and where it is now.

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What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 1: The Natural Interest Rate

May 18, 2015

With stocks hitting new highs today, even as the pace of economic growth seems to be slowing, much of the market’s strength appears to be coming from the continued low interest rates provided by the Federal Reserve. Although we don’t know when rates will rise, the general consensus seems to be that it will happen sometime this year.

With that in mind, it’s time to take another look at what happens when rates start to rise, a topic I originally addressed last year.

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Is Free Trade Really Good for Everyone?

May 15, 2015

As I noted yesterday, President Obama and Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, are working to move a new free trade agreement through Congress, based on a shared conviction that it is good for the country. Many Democrats, who do not share that conviction, are fighting it.

To understand what the stakes are here, and what the different sides are fighting for, let’s take a deeper look at how free trade works and how its benefits are distributed.

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Free Trade and American Politics

May 14, 2015

For the first time in a while, the U.S. has a major free trade agreement on the agenda. Trade is an interesting intersection of economics and politics, as we’ve seen in today’s news, which features President Obama and the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, working together for the first time in, well, ever, to overcome Democrats’ objections.

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Interest Rates and the Bond Market: Why You Should Care

May 13, 2015

Over the past couple of days, the bond market has had a bit of a snit. Rates for government bonds have risen—meaning that prices have dropped—around the world.

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Why Greece Really Matters

May 12, 2015

As promised yesterday, I want to talk about how the Greek situation could end up disrupting Europe and the European financial system, but in a completely different way than most people expect.

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Greece and China: Risks Continue to Simmer

May 11, 2015

Last week's strong employment report settled what I saw as the major short-term risk here in the U.S. Meanwhile, the biggest international risks—Greece and China—continue to make headlines, but the pot isn’t boiling over yet.

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April Jobs Report: Things Are Looking Up

May 8, 2015

The employment report for April came in just right, not too hot and not too cold.

At 223,000, it was a bit below expectations, but not meaningfully so. More important, it was back above the 200,000 threshold and well above the 126,000 of last month, prompting immediate sighs of relief all around.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, May 7, 2015 [Video]

May 8, 2015

I participated in a brief panel on CNBC's Power Lunch program on Thursday, May 7, 2015. The discussion centered on whether equities are overvalued—and what that could mean for retail investors and the stock market. 

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