The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

How Much More Expensive Can the Market Get?

April 19, 2016

After 15-percent pullbacks in both the first quarter and the middle of last year, the market is moving up toward new highs. The Dow just ticked above 18,000 for the first time since last July, and the S&P 500 is getting close to the 2,100 level, last seen in December. All-time highs are 18,351.36 for the Dow and 2,134.72 for the S&P 500, so we are getting close.

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Monday Update: Weaker Than Expected

April 18, 2016

Last week’s economic data was unexpectedly weak, with disappointing news on both retail sales and industrial production. Although forward-looking indicators are improving, the past week’s numbers suggest that the economy hasn’t yet moved beyond the slowdown.

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How High Are Taxes, Really?

April 15, 2016

At a conference last month, I had a discussion with a group of people who were deeply convinced that their taxes were as high as they’d ever been. I mentioned that solving the budget problems of the U.S. would require higher taxes—which wasn’t intended as a recommendation but simply a recognition of the math. The group maintained that it was impossible to raise taxes any further without crippling the economy.

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Economic Growth and the $15 Minimum Wage

April 14, 2016

I'm grateful for the many reader questions I've received recently—thank you all very much. Today, we’ll address another one: What does the prospective increase in the minimum wage mean for the economy, and how does that tie into recent slower growth in wages?

This is an excellent question, as it combines several important issues—hiring, wage growth, inequality, and economic growth— into one picture.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, April 13, 2016 [Video]

April 13, 2016

I was on CNBC’s Power Lunch today, talking with host Brian Sullivan about where the market can go from its current near-record high.

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The Election and the Financial Markets

April 13, 2016

Along with Puerto Rico, the other topic readers have been inquiring about is the presidential race and the effect on the markets. Yesterday, someone asked whether she should go to cash until the political uncertainty settles down. The short answer is no, but the question itself speaks to just how concerned people are about politics.

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Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis: Much Ado About Not Much

April 12, 2016

Per a reader's request, today we'll talk about the impact of the current debt crisis in Puerto Rico. Not only is this a major issue for the Puerto Ricans and their investors, but it also sheds light on how similar crises are likely to play out in the future.

You might want to pay attention to this movie, because you will be seeing it again over the next several years—probably more than once.

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Appearance on TheStreet, April 10, 2016 [Video]

April 11, 2016

Is Wall Street in for a pleasant surprise during this quarterly earnings season? I recently sat down with Rhonda Schaffler, anchor of TheStreet TV, to discuss earnings expectations and the economy.

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Monday Update: More Slow Progress

April 11, 2016

Once again, last week’s economic news was relatively positive.

Although the industrial sector continued to struggle, manufacturing showed further signs of stabilization, and the service sector actually improved. Net exports continued to be a weak point, driven by economic weakness abroad. (The Federal Reserve highlighted this as the major source of risk in the March meeting minutes.) Nonetheless, the fundamentals continued to show slow improvement, suggesting that the economy is moving out of the slowdown of the past two quarters.

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Where Will Economic Growth Come From?

April 8, 2016

I wrote yesterday that economic growth has historically been significantly affected by the growth of the population, and how that offers some (but not a lot) of encouragement over the next 10 years. It will help, but not as much as we need.

Another way to look at recent economic growth is to consider where that growth came from, and to see whether those trends offer any prescriptions for how we can accelerate the economy.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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