We’ve been seeing mixed data on the economy lately—even some signs that a slowdown might be under way. But was the slowdown real, or was it just another slow first quarter, which has been the norm for the past couple of years? A weak set of data for March raised concerns even higher, and this week was going to help us confirm what was really going on.  

As of today, it looks like predictions of the recovery’s death have been exaggerated once again.

Warren Buffett has said that he finds living in Omaha to be an advantage, as it distances him from much of the daily noise of the financial markets. Since I’ve been in Hungary at a conference this week, I’m starting to understand what he means.

I’m in Budapest, Hungary, this week at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference. As always, it's great to spend time with such a fantastic group of financial advisors. It is an enormous privilege to be here.

April was another good month for markets around the world. Although worry over the French election weighed on performance, markets rallied in the last week of the month as a centrist candidate secured a spot in the final round. 

Although demand for housing remains strong, last week’s economic data was generally downbeat, suggesting growth is moderating and that chances for a near-term acceleration may be passing. Although general levels of activity remain expansionary, it was a disappointing week overall—and one that starts to call into question future growth.

As April draws to a close, the old adage “Sell in May and go away” may be on some investors’ minds. The saying refers to the tendency of markets to underperform during the period from May to October (as compared with better performance from November through April), advising us to sell and wait for brighter days ahead.

The big news today is the White House's tax plan, which proposes to cut taxes across the board, relieve millions of people from the burden of paying income taxes, and make filing much simpler and easier—all while keeping the budget in balance (or at least not making the situation worse).

Yesterday, readers wrote in with a couple of very good questions about risk.

With Emmanuel Macron through to the second round, the French election is (largely) off the table as a systemic risk. Polls show Macron well ahead of Marine Le Pen of the National Front, and the likelihood is that the next French president will be a pro-European centrist rather than an anti-European populist.

Last week’s economic reports showed some moderation of growth, with substantial divergence between the headline figures and the underlying details in several cases. That said, the general levels of activity remain expansionary. Overall, it was a pretty positive week, but not one that significantly changes expectations going forward.