When looking at the stock market, one of the key things we should focus on are earnings, as they represent the bedrock of a stock’s value. The best way to value stocks—the dividend growth model—analyzes earnings, growth rates, and required returns to determine what a stock is worth fundamentally. Growth rates and required returns are subjective estimates, but earnings are facts. Everything starts from there.

Yesterday saw another new high for the Dow, as well as big bumps in the other indices. The only real news, and what I consider the driving factor for those highs, was that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen appeared a bit more dovish in her Congressional testimony than was expected. Given the low inflation we have seen, she said, the Fed is reserving the right to raise rates more slowly than it has previously indicated. Also, no time frame was given on starting to wind down the balance sheet. The result? Stocks proceeded to rally significantly. Think about that: with no real news about the fundamentals of corporate earnings or economic growth, a hint that the Fed might raise rates a bit more slowly drove stocks up.

Market risks come in three flavors—recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. Using a red light/yellow light/green light system, this monthly post explores the risk level in the markets, based on a number of factors.

The data for June was generally positive, with a rebound in job growth and a surprise increase in business confidence supported by continued high levels of consumer confidence. After a run of weak data in the past couple of months, the June rebound is a good sign. Although there is still a gap between confidence and actual hard data, the persistence of confidence suggests that most economic factors remain positive—and that the current expansion is likely to continue.

Despite a recent run of weak data indicating a summer slowdown, positive surprises across the board last week suggest that growth is likely to continue for the rest of the year. Business sentiment rose further into positive territory, while job growth was much stronger than expected. Overall, the big picture looks positive, as businesses continue to feel good and to act on it by hiring.

The news this morning on the jobs report was much better than expected, with a strong June offsetting a weak May. This supports the idea that some of the weak data we’ve seen recently is just a summer slowdown, rather than something worse. And with consumer and business confidence still at high levels, prospects for the immediate future continue to look good.

To start, for those of you wondering exactly what the “VIX” is, formally, it is an index of expected volatility in the returns of the S&P 500 Index. It’s calculated based on the prices of eight different put and call options. If that doesn’t mean much, it might help to think of the VIX as a fear index. When the market tanks, the VIX rises; when the market is smooth—and expected to remain so—the VIX is low. In other words, low VIX equals low fear.

June was a good month, with consumer confidence and business confidence remaining strong. The Federal Reserve raised rates and seems likely to keep doing so. Plus, growth is accelerating around the world, from Europe to China. But here’s the problem: Both consumer spending and business investment are not growing as much as expected.

Although consumers remain confident, last week’s data showed that neither consumers nor businesses are spending. This weakness raises concerns about whether the expansion will continue to accelerate.

It’s hard to believe tomorrow is July 1—the halfway point of 2017. The first half of the year, eventful as it was, has simply blown by. And now that we are moving into the second half, it’s time to take a look at the stories that are likely to play out in the economy and markets over the next six months.