The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Prices Steady, Consumers Spending

January 16, 2018

Last week was a slow one for data releases, with only consumer prices and retail sales. Overall, the news remained good. The expansion continued, with inflation maintaining a moderate pace and consumers spending freely.

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Appearance on CNBC's Nightly Business Report, January 11, 2018 [Video]

January 12, 2018

Yesterday, I appeared on CNBC’s Nightly Business Report (my segment starts at 11:09) to discuss the effect of rising interest rates on utility investments. Although there are some short-term concerns for investors, there is certainly no cause for panic. Listen in to learn more.

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What Do Higher Interest Rates Mean for Investments?

January 12, 2018

With interest rates rising recently, I have received a number of questions about what that means for our investments. It’s not as simple a question as you might think. As such, it is worth taking some time to think things through.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, January 11, 2018 [Video]

January 11, 2018

Although many are talking about higher rates, I think the real market story is deregulation. I shared my thoughts on this and more earlier today on CNBC's Power Lunch.

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What Investors (Should) Know Ahead of Time

January 11, 2018

investorsI was thinking about demographics the other day, in the context of what they mean for economic growth over the next decade or so. One of the reasons growth has been so slow in recent years is simply because of the age mix of the population. Baby boomers are aging and retiring, so they are spending less. The rising millennial generation, on the other hand, has not yet hit its peak earning and spending years. As such, the drag from the boomers offsets the gain from the millennials. It will continue to do so for the next couple of years, but then that will change. The effect of demographics is one of the few things we really can know ahead of time in economics. We know who has been born—and when. After that, it is just a matter of counting.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2018

January 10, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for January? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2018

January 9, 2018

December’s data remained solid on an absolute basis, suggesting ongoing growth into 2018. With job growth showing signs of a slowdown and consumer and business confidence exhibiting signs of topping, however, the momentum of late 2017 may be fading. Fed policy remains stimulative, although less so than in previous months, but pending expected rate hikes may also start to erode that momentum.

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Monday Update: Economy Still Strong, But Signs of Slowing

January 8, 2018

Last week was a busy one for data releases, giving us a wide-ranging look at the economy. Overall, the news remains good and the expansion continues. But there are also signs that growth may be slowing.

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Dow 25K: A Look Beyond the Headlines

January 5, 2018

Here we go again!

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What to Watch for in 2018: Housing and Auto Sales

January 4, 2018

Yesterday, I noted briefly that I would be “keeping an eye” on how long the good times last in the new year. It was one of those offhand comments that, once you think about it, really requires quite a bit more thought and analysis than at first glance. As an example, my dog is now barking like crazy at the snow. Why is he barking? I don’t know, and I suspect he doesn’t either. He just knows things are different and therefore worrying, and he wants to let his people know he’s on the job. My aim is to be at least slightly smarter than the dog here, so let’s lay the groundwork for what we will be watching in 2018.

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