The Independent Market Observer

U.S. Economic Growth Continues

November 25, 2014

We interrupt this broadcast to bring you important news: the U.S. economy is still growing—and faster than many expected.

I hesitate to highlight this, as I fear I'm starting to come off as a perennial optimist, even a cheerleader, for the economy. But it’s important to consult the data, good and bad alike, and there have been plenty of positive developments lately. 

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Japan Falls into Recession

November 17, 2014

The big news today is that, after two consecutive quarters of declining growth, Japan has fallen into recession. The Japanese economy was down 1.6 percent in the third quarter, following a 7.3-percent decline the previous quarter.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Lies, Damned Lies, and Wage Growth

November 11, 2014

I mentioned yesterday that employment numbers are much stronger than most people are giving them credit for. The one exception is wage growth, which, as a statistic, has some weaknesses.

Today, I want to talk about those weaknesses and look at some numbers that paint a rosier picture.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

The October Employment Report: More Good News

November 10, 2014

The October employment report released Friday offered another round of good news for workers and the economy as a whole.

For a couple years now, I’ve been emphasizing the positive direction of employment trends and noting that progress is accelerating, and it’s great to see the data showing that traction.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

A Trend to Watch in the Oil Market

November 5, 2014

As expected, the midterm election resulted in the Republicans gaining control of Congress. Despite all the ink and hot air expended on it, though, the election isn’t the most important news right now. The bigger story is the slump in the oil market as Saudi Arabia cuts prices for U.S. buyers.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Wage Growth Ahoy!

October 31, 2014

Thus far in the recovery, wage growth has been a mirage—presumed to be out there, occasionally sighted, but never actually brought to bay. There have been signs for some time that wage growth was coming, but it's never arrived. Like someone crawling across the desert, every time we’ve seen water, it’s turned out to be just more sand.

That changed today.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

After Fed Statement, a Not-So-Scary Halloween

October 30, 2014

The big news in my house right now is Halloween, with a major costume decision between Toothless (a dragon) and Hiccup (his friend) hanging in the balance. Neither choice is particularly scary (it’s a small dragon), and that’s okay—it won’t be a very scary Halloween for the economy either.  

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Appearance on Opening Bell with Maria Bartiromo, October 15, 2014

October 29, 2014

In case you missed it, I was in studio for Fox Business's Opening Bell with Maria Bartiromo on October 15. The conversation centered on the recent market selloff, as well as the ongoing economic recovery. 

Continue reading → Leave a comment

European Banks Healthier than Expected: Why We Should Care

October 27, 2014

Today's big financial and economic news is that the European banking system is in better condition than many had thought.

An extensive review by the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority was completed on Sunday. It concluded that, of the 130 large banks reviewed, only 25 were below the standards at the end of 2013; of those, 12 have since raised enough capital to get out of the danger zone.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

IBM’s Woes Highlight a Major Risk to the Market

October 21, 2014

And he woke up, and it was all a dream.

With a six-year-old son, I admit I’ve been forced to end stories in that way on more than one occasion, when I get stuck and run out of ideas (or energy). Looking at the market today, though, the events of last week have certainly taken on a dreamlike quality. What just happened?

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via Email

AI_Community_Podcast_Thumb - 1

 

Episode 9
July 23, 2025

Episode 8
June 18, 2025

Episode 7
May 14, 2025

Episode 6
April 23, 2025

More


Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®