The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Retail Sales Rebound

April 23, 2018

Last week’s reports gave us a look at pretty much the entire economy, including consumer spending, the housing market, and industrial production and manufacturing. In the week ahead, we’ll see data on consumer confidence, durable goods, and gross domestic product growth.

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Monday Update: Inflation on the Rise

April 16, 2018

Last week, the news was largely about inflation, with producer and consumer prices leading the way. The week ahead will be a busy one for economic news. Reports will give us a look at consumer spending, the housing market, and industrial production and manufacturing. In other words, we’ll get an update on the entire economy.

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Appearance on CNBC's Nightly Business Report, April 6, 2018 [Video] 

April 9, 2018

On Friday, I appeared on CNBC's Nightly Business Report (my segment starts at 10:19) to discuss the latest jobs report, more rate increases from the Fed, and what effect the tariffs may have on the market. Listen in to learn more.

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Monday Update: Business Confidence Pulls Back, But Remains High

April 9, 2018

Last week was a busy one for economic news, starting with the major business surveys. Inflation will be the focus this week, with producer and consumer prices due in the first half.

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Monday Update: Consumers Still Confident and Spending

April 2, 2018

There were only two major economic reports last week, but they gave us a look at the all-important consumer. The week ahead will be a busy one for economic news, including the major business surveys.

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Monday Update: Fed Raises Rates, Tariffs Rock Markets

March 26, 2018

Last week’s economic news focused on the Fed and tariffs. This week, there are only two major reports, but each will give us a look at the all-important consumer.

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Fed Meeting Preview: Getting to Know Chair Jerome Powell

March 20, 2018

The regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (better known as the Fed) starts today and ends tomorrow with an official statement followed by a press conference. Markets expect the Fed to announce that interest rates will rise another 25 basis points, with 100-percent probability. Further, they are currently pricing in another couple of increases this year, as you can see in the Bloomberg chart below.

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Monday Update: Industry Strong, But Consumer Spending Slowing

March 19, 2018

Last week was a busy one for economic news, with five major reports covering all areas. But this week, all eyes will be on the Fed. Let’s take a closer look.

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Monday Update: Jobs Report Exceptionally Strong

March 12, 2018

There were three major economic reports last week, which gave us a look at the service sector, trade, and—most important—the job market. The week ahead will be a busy one, with five major reports expected.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, March 5, 2018 [Video]

March 5, 2018

As the bull market reaches its ninth year, what will it take to actually bring it down? Or will the market continue to rise? I discussed this and more earlier today on CNBC's Power Lunch.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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