---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (47)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (47)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Healthcare/healthcare-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-worst-of-the-economic-damage-behind-us)

## [Is the Worst of the Economic Damage Behind Us?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-worst-of-the-economic-damage-behind-us)

January 29, 2021

For the moment at least, the big picture continues to be positive. On the medical front, all three major data series—new cases, positive testing rates, and hospitalizations—have continued to trend down, while vaccinations continue to scale up. If current trends continue, we are through the worst of the pandemic and should see continued improvement.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-worst-of-the-economic-damage-behind-us) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-worst-of-the-economic-damage-behind-us#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/In-the-News/inthenews-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-reddit-breaking-the-market)

## [Is Reddit Breaking the Market?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-reddit-breaking-the-market)

January 28, 2021

Another day, another crisis. On top of the [bubble worries](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-stock-market-in-a-bubble) and the market pullback yesterday, the headlines are saying we now have a mob of retail traders coming for the market itself. By trading up several stocks well beyond what the professionals think they are worth, the headlines scream that the retail investors are beating Wall Street and that the market is somehow broken. I don’t think so.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-reddit-breaking-the-market) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-reddit-breaking-the-market#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/stock-market-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-stock-market-in-a-bubble)

## [Is the Stock Market in a Bubble?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-stock-market-in-a-bubble)

January 27, 2021

There has been a lot of talk about whether the stock market is in a bubble. As usual, there are distinguished professionals on both sides of the debate, armed with convincing statistics and arguments. So, what is the average investor to do? We do what we usually do: try to understand the facts of the situation. Let’s start by asking ourselves what a bubble is, as this is the unavoidable first step in deciding whether we are in one.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-stock-market-in-a-bubble) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-stock-market-in-a-bubble#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/stock-market-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2020s-remarkable-value-rally)

## [2020’s Remarkable Value Rally](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2020s-remarkable-value-rally)

January 26, 2021

*Today's post is from Peter Essele, vice president of investment management and research.*

As we turn the page on 2020 (thankfully!), market practitioners are starting to release outlook pieces and portfolio positioning recommendations for the year ahead. The recent strong performance of value, when compared with growth, has many investors wondering whether it makes sense to consider an overweight to this seemingly forgotten asset class, which has benefited greatly from the recent vaccine rally.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2020s-remarkable-value-rally) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2020s-remarkable-value-rally#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Healthcare/healthcare-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/progress-on-medical-front-but-economic-data-remains-soft)

## [Progress on Medical Front, But Economic Data Remains Soft](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/progress-on-medical-front-but-economic-data-remains-soft)

January 21, 2021

For the first time in quite a while, the big picture is positive. On the medical front, the post-Christmas/New Year travel surge has faded, testing has resumed at scale, and the positive test rates have dropped back down. The trends are now positive and likely to remain that way.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/progress-on-medical-front-but-economic-data-remains-soft) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/progress-on-medical-front-but-economic-data-remains-soft#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Politics/elephant%20donkey.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-think-about-politics-and-investments)

## [How to Think About Politics and Investments](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-think-about-politics-and-investments)

January 20, 2021

It seems appropriate today to consider how we think about politics when we look at our investments. With one administration ending and another starting, politics has obviously consumed much of everyone’s thoughts in the past weeks and months. With the outcome of the election, many are worried—and many are excited. With a new set of policies and priorities, we can reasonably expect the economy to change and the markets to react. Given the emotions that politics evokes, how do we think about politics as we make our investment decisions?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-think-about-politics-and-investments) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-think-about-politics-and-investments#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Politics/econ%20stimulus.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-biden-stimulus-plan)

## [The Biden Stimulus Plan](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-biden-stimulus-plan)

January 15, 2021

The economic news has continued to soften in recent days. December saw layoffs go up and the number of jobs decline, and, this morning, the retail sales numbers dropped. Consumer confidence has gone down. Clearly, the economic headwinds from the pandemic are getting worse.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-biden-stimulus-plan) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-biden-stimulus-plan#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/stock-market-d.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/financial-markets-hold-gains-on-vaccine-and-stimulus-news)

## [Financial Markets Hold Gains on Vaccine and Stimulus News](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/financial-markets-hold-gains-on-vaccine-and-stimulus-news)

January 14, 2021

As expected, we saw infections due to holiday travel showing up in the data over the past week, with case counts rising to new highs. But by week’s end, there were signs that case growth was peaking as the holiday travel effects started to fade. We could now be approaching the peak, although the events in Washington on January 6 are now presenting a risk of another wave of travel-induced infections. We should know in the next week or so if that is the case.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/financial-markets-hold-gains-on-vaccine-and-stimulus-news) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/financial-markets-hold-gains-on-vaccine-and-stimulus-news#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economy/econ-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economy-hit-hard-in-recent-weeks)

## [Economy Hit Hard in Recent Weeks](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economy-hit-hard-in-recent-weeks)

January 7, 2021

As expected, we saw a pullback in many coronavirus indicators over the Christmas holidays. But also as expected, the data has bounced back, indicating that the drop was due to slower reporting rather than an actual decline in cases. Looking forward, we still have another couple of weeks where infections due to holiday travel will show up in the data, and there are signs that is starting to occur. The next two weeks are likely to show continued case growth. While some sections of the country are showing improvements, we are not through this wave yet.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economy-hit-hard-in-recent-weeks) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economy-hit-hard-in-recent-weeks#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Election/election-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/washington-turns-very-light-blue)

## [Washington Turns (Very Light) Blue](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/washington-turns-very-light-blue)

January 6, 2021

Today should be the day we see Washington start to turn blue. With the Congress meeting to count the inaugural votes and with the Georgia Senate runoff likely to show both seats won by Democrats, all three arms of government will be under control of the Democratic Party come the inauguration.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/washington-turns-very-light-blue) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/washington-turns-very-light-blue#comments-listing)

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- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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