One of the big unexamined assumptions of many of the questions I have been getting recently is that politics matters to economics. I get questions from both sides—how bad will it be if candidate X wins? They all assume that candidate X, whoever it is, has the ability to significantly affect the economy and the markets. But is that really the case?

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front, with a focus on August’s housing sales and durable goods orders reports. This week will be packed with economic updates, with a focus on consumer and manufacturer confidence and the September jobs report.

In a client event this week, I got an interesting question: “How do you stay calm? With everything that is going on, with all of the problems and risks that you have to evaluate, every day, how do you manage to stay calm?” I thought it was a very good question.

Over the past week, the news on the medical front has been mixed. The pandemic remains under control, and the case growth rate remains low. But case growth has started to slowly increase again, as post-Labor Day infections begin to register and as schools and universities reopen.

Recently, I have been getting a number of questions from people who are scared about what might happen to the financial markets at election time. The fear is that if we get a disputed election, it could lead to disruption and possibly even violence. If so, we could well see markets take a significant hit.

As we have seen, markets have continued to decline throughout September. Despite some attempts to rally, we are now well below the peak at the start of the month. How worried should we be?

Last week was packed with economic updates, with a focus on housing, consumer confidence and spending, and the results from the Fed’s September meeting. The news for consumers was mixed, with better-than-expected confidence in September helping to calm concerns about slower sales growth in August. This week will be less busy for economic updates, with reports primarily focused on housing sales and durable goods orders.

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. This week, we had some mixed news on the medical front. Although the pandemic remains under control, case counts have started to rise again, as post-Labor Day infections begin to register and as schools and universities reopen. Still, case growth remains well below July and August levels, and the positive test rate has continued to decline and is now around the recommended 5 percent level.

The past week has seen the case growth rate remain low. But there are signs that the case count may be rising, as post-Labor Day infections start to register and as schools and universities reopen. While the pandemic remains under control, the steady improvement in both the case growth rate and case growth itself has paused and may be starting to falter. While the control measures are still working, conditions are changing.

As a follow-up to yesterday’s post about how no one seems to be worrying about the federal deficit, I was having a conversation with a reporter this morning and found myself expanding on other things the market seems to have forgotten about. Yes, we have the pandemic and the U.S. recovery on the radar, but not the deficit. And once you start thinking about it, there are other issues out there that were rattling markets only last year. What about the pending hard Brexit, for example? What about the U.S.-China trade conflict and deals? What about the continued weakness of the energy sector? What about the rising pandemic costs in emerging markets? What about the growing conflict between Greece and Turkey (two NATO countries) in the eastern Mediterranean? And so on, and so on.