The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for May 2021 [Video]

May 3, 2021

April was a good month for the markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained more than 5 percent, while the Dow was up almost 3 percent. These returns were driven, in part, by the medical news, with new case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths all down. While the medical risks declined, reopening accelerated. Job growth rose, and weekly layoffs dropped. Consumer confidence and spending also improved.

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Coronavirus Update: April 30, 2021 [Video]

April 30, 2021

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. We’ve had good news on the medical front, as the fourth wave of the virus doesn’t seem to be gaining traction. Case counts and positive test rates are back to the lows we saw as the third wave subsided, and hospitalizations and death rates have improved. One potential problem is that vaccination rates have slowed, which we will need to keep an eye on.

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Don’t Sell in May and Go Away

April 29, 2021

As we approach the summer months, there are a lot of reasons for investors to be worried: inflation, taxes, the deficit, and on and on. I am hearing quite a bit about reasons not to be cheerful, some of which we’ve talked about in other posts. But because of where we are in the calendar, there is one more making the rounds—the old market chestnut “sell in May and go away”—that I want to talk about today. The short response to this adage, for readers in a hurry, is “don’t.”

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Will the Fed Do Anything About Interest Rates?

April 28, 2021

I have had a number of questions recently about inflation and what that means for the Fed and interest rates. The general assumption seems to be that inflation is about to rise sharply and that the Fed will be forced to raise rates to control it, with the usual panoply of devastating side effects. The taper tantrum gets mentioned frequently, as when rates rose sharply and derailed stock markets after the Fed suggested it would tighten policy.

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Vaccinations Are Working—But We’re Not There Yet

April 27, 2021

I spent last week down in the Florida Keys on vacation with my family. It was great. The weather was terrific, we went snorkeling and kayaking, and the place we stayed was very nice. Truly relaxing.

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Monday Update: Initial Jobless Claims Set New Pandemic-Era Low

April 26, 2021

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front, with only three major data releases. The weekly initial jobless claims and new home sales reports served as highlights. This week will be busier, with reports on first-quarter GDP growth, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending.

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With Interest Rates Up, Should Investors Search for Yield?

April 23, 2021

The 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing steadily since hitting a low of 0.5 percent in August 2020. This week, as of April 20, it was close to 1.56 percent. But the rise in rates hasn’t been equal across the broad spectrum of fixed income instruments. If you’re an investor who hasn’t made any changes to your fixed income portfolio since last August, it’s likely your exposures have changed. As a result, your investments may not be delivering the benefits you’re looking for. To assess the situation, take a look under the hood at your fixed income portfolio. But first you need to understand what current interest rates are telling us—and how inflation is involved.

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The Winners and Losers of the American Jobs Plan

April 22, 2021

Infrastructure is the backbone of any healthy economy, and America’s is in desperate need of refurbishment and investment. Indeed, President Biden campaigned on a promise to revitalize our aging infrastructure and to invest heavily in clean energy. Biden recently took the first step in that direction by introducing the $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan. Let’s talk about this plan’s winners and losers, as well as what it could mean for your investment portfolio.

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What’s Trending in Target-Date Funds?

April 21, 2021

Today's post is from Michael Geraci, supervisor, retirement consulting investment services.

Last year was a challenging one for the financial markets, resulting in volatility for most investment products. In fact, the coronavirus pandemic presented the biggest test for most asset allocation products since the 2008 financial crisis. 401(k) investments were no exception, specifically target-date funds.

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Monday Update: Retail Sales Soar as Economic Recovery Accelerates

April 19, 2021

Last week saw the release of a number of important economic updates, with most reports pointing toward a continued acceleration in the pace of the economic recovery. Highlights included a surge in March’s retail sales and housing starts, as well as a new low for the number of weekly initial jobless claims. This week will be relatively quiet, with a focus on March’s home sales reports.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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