The Independent Market Observer

Europe and China: How Their Troubles May Benefit Us

August 14, 2014

Yesterday, we talked about how the U.S. government deficit, while improving, is still way too high, posing serious problems for the future. Today, I want to touch on two other problems that you might think have been solved—but haven’t.

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Time for Another Look at the National Deficit and Debt

August 13, 2014

Part of the return to normal for the economy and the financial markets has been a decline in interest—or at least media coverage—of the national deficit and debt.

Though understandable, this is a mistake, as the deficit and debt remain a serious problem for the country in the medium to long term.

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SRI and ESG: Investing with the Good Guys

August 12, 2014

Following up on yesterday’s post, I want to look at two areas of the investment world that have a lot to say about how we invest our money—and how we make our profits.

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Doing Well by Doing Good

August 11, 2014

One of the keys to business success is sustainable advantage, often referred to as a competitive “moat.” In short, if you have something your competitors can’t duplicate, you can charge for it and make money.

The idea typically centers on things that protect products. Think of patents, or the kind of ecosystem of software, hardware, and content that Apple, Amazon, and Google are building, at a cost of billions of dollars.

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Debt Isn’t a Bad Thing, as Long as It’s Affordable

August 8, 2014

Yesterday, I wrote that banks starting to lend again is a plus for the economy. Today, I want to take a closer look at a key assumption underlying that statement.

Much of modern society revolves around consumption, and there's nothing wrong with thatif it’s affordable. If not, we find ourselves in 2009 again.

The real question here is what affordable means. In fact, this is the question at the core of saving, investing, retiring, and pretty much everything else I write about here. 

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Why the Bank of America Deal Is Good for Everyone

August 7, 2014

The headlines today are all about the deal between Bank of America and the government. After months of negotiation, the bank will pay about $17 billion to resolve allegations that it didn’t follow the rules for residential mortgages before the financial crisis. 

No company likes to pay out billions of dollars, and BofA had a good case that it didn’t do nearly as much wrong as the government claimed. (Many of the allegations involved actions committed by companies that the bank acquired at the government’s urging during the crisis.) Nonetheless, the BofA deal should be a good thing for the bank—and the rest of America.

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Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, August 7, 2014

August 7, 2014

Learn why I told CNBC Worldwide Exchange that I think the Fed's tapering of its bond-buying program is a good thing for the financial sector in an interview today, August 7

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Should We Be Scared of Market Volatility?

August 6, 2014

When I go on vacation, I do so with the expectation that something will happen that makes me (almost) want to be back in the office.

Sure enough, while I was out last week, the market proceeded to sell off in a way that has become pretty uncommon recently, generating fear and worry.

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Market Thoughts for August 2014

August 6, 2014

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I talk about the U.S. economy, international turmoil, and the U.S. market's performance at the end of July.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2014

August 5, 2014

It’s time for our monthly update on factors that have proven to be reliable indicators of economic trouble ahead.

As expected, the data hasn’t changed that much from last month—it’s encouraging in almost all areas—but it remains important to keep an eye on things.  

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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