The Independent Market Observer

A Walk Through Today’s Strong Jobs Report

June 5, 2015

As I wrote the other day, the economic recovery really all boils down to jobs. With multiple weak indicators across the board and a poor March jobs report, many wondered: was the recovery continuing, or were we in the first stages of another slowdown?

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Greece: Teenager with a Credit Card

June 4, 2015

As yet another deadline for Greece and the eurozone approaches, we once again find ourselves considering what a Greek default might mean for the U.S. and world economies. First, though, let’s take another look at what’s actually going on with Greece and Europe.

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U.S. Power and the South China Sea

June 3, 2015

I planned to write more about sources of economic growth today, but I’m out of the office without easy access to data, so we’ll postpone that conversation to tomorrow. Instead, let’s discuss the situation in the South China Sea.

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Where Does Economic Growth Come From?

June 2, 2015

When we discuss economic growth, there’s a tendency to look at the top level of data—the growth figure itself—and try to figure things out from there. Recently, I’ve compared current growth levels with those of past decades (here and here) but haven’t discussed why things might have been different.

Today, as a way to understand those differences, let’s think about where growth comes from, on a fundamental level.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2015

June 1, 2015

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data we look at here hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in almost all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

As we move into the summer, though, the economic forecast remains bright, despite weakness in the first quarter.

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U.S. GDP and Slow Growth

May 29, 2015

As you may remember, the original estimate for first-quarter U.S. GDP growth was a none-too-exciting 0.2 percent. Today’s revision reduced that to a downright depressing decline of 0.7 percent.

In this light, the slow growth problem I mentioned yesterday sounds optimistic, right?

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Tomorrow’s Big Problems: 4 Issues to Watch

May 28, 2015

My focus on this blog, as you know, is the economy and investing—with the exception of my lobster roll posts (which will resume this summer).

Although there are still big problems out there (Greece, anyone?), the U.S. economy continues its slow expansion, and economics is no longer the concern that it was. The same, generally speaking, applies to investing. Despite many potential pitfalls, which I’ve discussed in detail, the market appears more likely to head up than down, at least for the moment.

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4 Things I Believe About Investing

May 27, 2015

Over the past couple of days, I’ve had several conversations about investing. Nothing new there, but a question came up that deserved some serious thought: What do you really believe, or really know, about investing?

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Today’s Economic News: Expectations and Reality

May 26, 2015

I spent this morning reviewing today's economic news in preparation for a TV appearance. I didn't have much of a chance to focus on it in the interview, but fortunately we can discuss it here. The news wasn’t just good, but good in an interesting way.

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Appearance on Fox Business Network's Opening Bell, May 26, 2015 [Video]

May 26, 2015

Where's the best place for your money today?

That's the question I discussed this morning with Opening Bell host Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business Network. Hear my thoughts on how to position your portfolio.

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