Spanning the whole economy, last week’s reports were positive overall but mostly more of the same. Manufacturing continues to slog along with no indications of recovery, despite the first signs of stabilization in the oil-drilling sector. Retail sales, on the other hand, show the consumer driving even faster economic growth.

The rise of automated financial advice—essentially, computer programs that rebalance your accounts—has been a hot topic in the investment industry. Blockchain technology, which could automate many functions now handled by securities exchanges, is another one. Just this morning, a colleague sent me an article about a start-up that looks to make transferring money essentially free, undercutting PayPal, which is already undercutting banks.

Yesterday, we talked about what the stock market is really saying. Briefly, despite all of the bad news out there, the stock market has not collapsed and the world is not coming to an end, at least in the short term. This, of course, is good news—but an absence of catastrophe doesn’t mean things will be good, either.

After a couple of posts on risky business (the Brexit vote and negative rates), let’s take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s easy to get caught up in individual stories, but we need to understand how they fit together—and what the market is saying about it all.

The big news today in the financial world is that, for the first time on record, the yield on the German 10-year government bond dropped below zero. This is just the latest step in the ongoing decline in interest rates. In fact, the Japanese 15-year government bond recently went negative as well.

The only major report last week was Friday’s release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. It remained essentially stable, with a small decline from 94.7 to 94.3.

On June 23, Britain will vote on whether or not to leave the European Union, popularly known as Brexit (British exit). As the date approaches, concerns have been rising that the referendum might actually pass. What would it mean if it did?

Over the last several posts, we’ve taken an in-depth look at bear markets—the factors that cause them, the events that indicate immediate risk is rising, and the time frames over which these events can develop. At the moment, the pieces don’t seem to be in place for a bear market, but the risk level does remain high.

This will be the penultimate post in our series on how to spot pending bear markets.

Although expensive valuations are a noted risk factor in past bear markets, they don’t give us much to go on timing-wise, as markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years.

Last week, we talked about several major warning signs for a bear market: recessions, commodity price spikes, rapid rate increases by the Federal Reserve, and high market valuations. In Friday’s Economic Risk Factor Update, we looked at the probability of a recession in the near future and concluded that it was unlikely.

Today, we’ll consider the next two risk factors: oil price spikes and Fed rate increases.