The data for June was generally positive, with a rebound in job growth and a surprise increase in business confidence supported by continued high levels of consumer confidence. After a run of weak data in the past couple of months, the June rebound is a good sign. Although there is still a gap between confidence and actual hard data, the persistence of confidence suggests that most economic factors remain positive—and that the current expansion is likely to continue.

Despite a recent run of weak data indicating a summer slowdown, positive surprises across the board last week suggest that growth is likely to continue for the rest of the year. Business sentiment rose further into positive territory, while job growth was much stronger than expected. Overall, the big picture looks positive, as businesses continue to feel good and to act on it by hiring.

The news this morning on the jobs report was much better than expected, with a strong June offsetting a weak May. This supports the idea that some of the weak data we’ve seen recently is just a summer slowdown, rather than something worse. And with consumer and business confidence still at high levels, prospects for the immediate future continue to look good.

To start, for those of you wondering exactly what the “VIX” is, formally, it is an index of expected volatility in the returns of the S&P 500 Index. It’s calculated based on the prices of eight different put and call options. If that doesn’t mean much, it might help to think of the VIX as a fear index. When the market tanks, the VIX rises; when the market is smooth—and expected to remain so—the VIX is low. In other words, low VIX equals low fear.

June was a good month, with consumer confidence and business confidence remaining strong. The Federal Reserve raised rates and seems likely to keep doing so. Plus, growth is accelerating around the world, from Europe to China. But here’s the problem: Both consumer spending and business investment are not growing as much as expected.

Although consumers remain confident, last week’s data showed that neither consumers nor businesses are spending. This weakness raises concerns about whether the expansion will continue to accelerate.

It’s hard to believe tomorrow is July 1—the halfway point of 2017. The first half of the year, eventful as it was, has simply blown by. And now that we are moving into the second half, it’s time to take a look at the stories that are likely to play out in the economy and markets over the next six months.

Yesterday, we talked about the worries surrounding exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—chiefly, that they could trigger a flash crash. Ultimately, we concluded that ETFs are just an enabling technology, not the real problem. The real problem, at least potentially, is passive investing. Let’s take a closer look at what the passive investing trend could mean for the markets.

It’s never the bus you’re watching for that hits you, they say. Even if you are watching for different buses, sometimes it pays to look at just how close they are getting to you. In that spirit, and in response to some questions I have gotten recently, let’s look at two different buses that could run over the markets: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and passive investing.

Recently, there has been a great deal of discussion over oil prices—up, down, in a bear market, what is OPEC doing? So, let’s see what we can discern by applying our usual methods to the situation: evaluating changes over time, rather than in the short term; applying some historical perspective; and then looking at the fundamental economic realities to figure out what they mean now and in the future. I think you will find the results interesting.