Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for November? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

The good news is that confidence remained strong last month. Business sentiment bounced back in September to a 21-year high and, despite a small pullback, remains very close to that level. Consumer confidence rose even further, to an 18-year high. Even better, job growth rebounded significantly after a weak month. Overall, the economic news remains solid, which should support continued growth.

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, with looks at consumer income, spending, and confidence, as well as manufacturing industry sentiment, the trade balance, and, most important, the job market. The week ahead, on the other hand, will be a relatively slow one for economic news.

October lived up to its scary reputation, with both U.S. and international markets down. Plus, housing started to roll over, and retail sales disappointed once again. That’s not to mention the political risks. In the U.S., the midterm elections have increased uncertainty. In Europe, there are concerns over Brexit and political turmoil in Germany.

Next week is Commonwealth’s National Conference—an annual event where as many Commonwealth advisors as can make it gather together to learn, to network, and, most important, to have a good time together. This year, we are down in Austin again, a wonderful town. I am very much looking forward to it!

How will the markets perform in 2019, especially if rates continue to rise? I discussed this and more earlier today on CNBC's Squawk Box.

The other day in my post on the likelihood of another market crash, I pointed out that stocks could be viewed as either cheap (based on expected earnings growth and the forward P/E ratio for the past five years or so) or expensive (based on most of history before that). The real question, going forward, is whether the past five years are a better guide for the future or whether prior history is. In other words, are things different this time?

As you might imagine, I have been thinking about the financial markets quite a bit in recent days and trying (as we all have) to figure out what comes next. As I went through this process, though, it occurred to me that this is a great chance to evaluate how we think about the market as well. So for today’s post, let’s do both.

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, giving us a final view of housing for the month, as well as whether business investment continued to improve. The week concluded with a preliminary look at how the economy performed in the third quarter. In the week ahead, we’ll see data on consumer income, spending, and confidence, as well as manufacturing industry sentiment, the trade balance, and, most important, the job market.

After yesterday’s bounce, we’re seeing another bad day for the market. When I started writing this, the S&P 500 was down another 2 percent. The proximate cause here seems to be slower-than-expected revenue growth in two bellwether tech companies, Google and Amazon. They are down significantly more than the market as a whole, although the damage is widespread.