Do I think there’s a market pullback ahead? I appeared on CNBC’s Power Lunch on Friday to discuss this and more. 

I have been thinking a lot about the next decade. As we enter 2020, we know only a couple of things, but we should keep them in mind as we plan ahead.

Do I think we’re going to avoid a recession next year? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move.

After a strong 2019, worries are starting to build for the year ahead—especially over a potential recession. But the data is actually improving. As such, 2020 may look much like 2019. Job growth might slow, but consumers are likely to keep spending. Plus, business investment is showing signs of a comeback, which would be a significant tailwind. The news for the markets may not be as positive, as we may see some volatility. But as long as the economy keeps growing? The markets should continue to move forward.

This morning, the U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary voted to advance two articles of impeachment against President Trump to a vote by the full House of Representatives. The forthcoming event will mark only the fourth time in U.S. history that the full House has been set to consider impeaching a president. If, as is likely, the House votes to impeach, the trial will take place in the Senate, where President Trump is expected to be acquitted. Although this political shock from Washington, DC, has been widely anticipated, it’s still driving headlines now that it has occurred. But, despite the frenzy, it’s an open question whether we should care. As citizens, we certainly should. As investors—no. 

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

As I mentioned yesterday, one of the key data points that will determine whether we get a recession sometime next year is whether job growth continues. Tomorrow, we get the November 2019 jobs report. This report is a big one—not only for the economic impact but also for the potential market impact on whether we will really see a Santa Claus rally.

November was a great month for U.S. markets, with the S&P 500 up by 3.63 percent, the Dow up by 4.11 percent, and the Nasdaq up by 4.64 percent. All three indices are now up by more than 20 percent for the year. As we celebrated Thanksgiving, we had a lot to be thankful for. The news abroad wasn’t as good. But it also wasn’t as bad as the headlines might have suggested, as developed markets were up by 1.13 percent and emerging markets were down by just 0.13 percent. Given the headlines, those results are also pretty good.

November was another great month for U.S. markets, although international markets didn’t fare as well. Still, the news was positive given the worrying headlines on the Hong Kong riots and the ongoing trade dispute. Here in the U.S., consumer confidence remained at a strong level, and business confidence bounced back. Plus, job growth beat expectations, and new home sales were up.