The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth and investment management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is the primary spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Coronavirus Update: March 19, 2020 [Video]

March 19, 2020

Today, I'd like to share my framework for thinking about the coronavirus crisis, focusing on the virus itself, its economic effects, and the market implications. Viewed through this lens, it seems the virus is controllable, as seen in China and South Korea. Further, the widespread panic has been a positive, enabling governments to put effective restrictions in place.

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Assessing the Economic Damage from the Coronavirus Pandemic

March 19, 2020

Yesterday, we talked about how the coronavirus pandemic itself can be brought under control, and how in many countries it already has been. Here in the U.S., we are not there yet, but we can reasonably expect to get there in the next month or so. That is the good news.

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Appearance on Fox Business Network’s The Claman Countdown, March 18, 2020 [Video]

March 19, 2020

What should investors do given the market turbulence created by coronavirus fears? Yesterday, I appeared on Fox Business Network's The Claman Countdown to discuss this and more.

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The Coronavirus Pandemic: A Solvable Problem?

March 18, 2020

Yesterday, we talked about the big picture around the coronavirus crisis: the pandemic itself, the likely economic effects, and, last but certainly not least, the market reactions. Next, I want to start a more detailed discussion of each component. We will deal with the pandemic today, the economy tomorrow, and the markets on Friday. Although the big picture provides valuable context, there is also quite a bit to be gained by diving deeper into each component.

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How to Think About the Coronavirus Pandemic: The Big Picture

March 17, 2020

With everything that is happening in the world, now is a good time to step back and think about where we are and where we might be going. There is a tremendous amount of information available. But what’s missing is a framework for that information that would help clarify the big picture.

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's On the Move, March 16, 2020 [Video]

March 16, 2020

What do I make of the Fed’s surprise rate cut over the weekend? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On The Move.

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Appearance on CNBC’s Power Lunch, March 13, 2020 [Video]

March 16, 2020

On Friday, I appeared on CNBC’s Power Lunch to discuss the coronavirus, fear, and the market. Listen in to hear more.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2020

March 13, 2020

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's The Final Round, March 12, 2020 [Video]

March 13, 2020

Yesterday, I appeared on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round to discuss recent market declines, including what to expect going forward. Listen in to hear more.

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Where Bear? There Bear!

March 12, 2020

My son has a stuffed bear he got when he was quite small (from Commonwealth, as it happens). We used to play a game where the bear would sneak up on him. “Where bear? There bear!” Well, the bear is now here. We have finally seen the end of the bull market, with the Dow dropping 20 percent from its highs and the S&P 500 following today. We are officially in a bear market, with all that implies. Stock markets around the world are down again today on the news.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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