The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Hope Versus Fundamentals: Scotland and the Stock Markets

September 19, 2014

Okay, I admit it. Not only did I get up to check the numbers on the Scotland independence referendum every hour or so last night, but I also spent a few hours earlier in the evening arguing with friends about it. I’ve never been this personally engaged in a foreign political event.

I find it hard to explain why this is, even to myself. I come from a Scots-Irish background, so that may be one reason. Another reason is that I identify with the romantic, hopeful aspirations that drive the independence movement.

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Yesterday’s Federal Reserve Statement: No News Is Good News

September 18, 2014

The important thing about yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement was—in the words of Sherlock Holmes—the dog that did not bark. The Fed's statement included the “considerable time” language that some, including me, had been obsessing over.

For those of you with lives, perhaps some clarification would help. As the Fed continues to move toward a more normal monetary policy, we're seeing two things:

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Meet the New Fund, Same as the Old Fund? Thoughts on Alternative Investments

September 17, 2014

I am headed to New York today to speak at a conference on liquid alternatives. These types of alternative investments are often thought of as hedge funds for the masses; the idea is to take hedge fund-like strategies and wrap them in mutual funds. Ideally, this makes the expertise and money-making capabilities of all those hedge fund wizards available to mom and dad, so we can all get rich.

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The Ties Between Politics and Economics

September 16, 2014

For many, the study of economics goes back to the eighteenth-century urtext, The Wealth of Nations, by Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith. Notably, Smith and his contemporaries did not study economics, but political economy. At the time, there was no notion that economic behavior could be analyzed separately from its context, the political environment. The different governmental structures made the impact of government on human behavior absolutely impossible to separate—the ties between politics and economics were inextricable. To put it another way, it would be like considering the health of the brain while ignoring that of the heart.

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What Will the Central Banks Do? It’s All About the Marios (and Janets)

September 15, 2014

I’ve been listening to satellite radio as I commute to and from the office, coming across songs I haven’t heard in years—and, in some cases, decades—and getting exposed to music I’ve never heard at all. 

One song in particular, “It’s All About the Benjamins,” recently caught my attention. I missed this song in its initial incarnation, but I heard about it during the financial crisis, when it became something of a theme song (at least in my mind) for Benjamin Bernanke’s Federal Reserve intervention. 

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A Mission Without a Clear Goal

September 12, 2014

I got some thoughtful feedback on my post yesterday about the aftermath of 9/11, and what has been accomplished—or not accomplished—since then. I genuinely appreciate the comments, both for the thought and time that went into them and also as prompts for refining my own thinking.

What many took away from yesterday’s post is that I’m against committing troops. That is partially correct, in that I’m against committing troops without a clearly defined American interest in play, a plan to attain that interest, and an exit strategy thereafter. I don’t think it’s too much to ask that any commitment of lives actually have a specific goal.

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13 Years Later, How Much Progress Have We Made?

September 11, 2014

Thirteen years ago, on a bright sunny morning, the world changed. A violent, apocalyptic form of Islam shocked America in a way we hadn’t been shocked since Pearl Harbor. Thousands of deaths, trillions of dollars, and more than a decade later, we remember those who died, both in the 9/11 attacks and in the wars that followed.

Today, the top headline is that the President has authorized expanded military action against an army of extremists terrorizing large parts of the Middle East. ISIS, as it is known, has successfully baited the U.S. back into the tar pit.

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Apple Wants a Slice of the Mobile Payment Business

September 10, 2014

I’m the archetypal Apple customer. Between my wife, my son, and me, we own five Macs (including work computers), three iPhones, at least three iPods, and two iPads. I understand the attraction of the whole Apple experience. That said, I haven’t been a fan of Apple stock.

Why?

I figure my family has already bought pretty much everything we could use from the company’s current product lines. In my mind, Apple is more of a movie studio than a regular company, in that it depends on a stream of hits to grow. Samsung and Android are nipping at Apple’s heels in the phone and tablet space. Google is pushing hard at the laptop space with its Chromebooks. And the desktop market is no longer a growth area.

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Government to Banks: Step Further Back from the Edge

September 9, 2014

One of the real problems Europe faces, in my opinion, is that its banking system has never really acknowledged its problems and raised capital to the extent it should have. 

The U.S. banking system, on the other hand, has raised substantial capital and pretty much restored itself to financial health—as the banks interpret it, anyway.

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Things Fall Apart: Scotland Edition

September 8, 2014

Even as the U.S. economy continues to improve, and signs of better times keep popping up—the most recent being a break in the oil price below $100 per barrel, which will support consumer spending—other parts of the world continue to show signs of weakness.

Today, I want to highlight something that hasn’t yet become a major worry for Europe, but probably will: the possible secession of Scotland from the United Kingdom.

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