The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Market Thoughts for October 2017 [Video]

October 3, 2017

September was a great month for the financial markets. All three U.S. indices and developed markets around the world were up. These results are surprising given recent events. The U.S. was hit by some of the worst storms in history. Plus, the North Korea crisis persists, with credible talk of a nuclear war. Still, the markets continue to respond to the fundamentals, like strong consumer confidence and business investment.

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Monday Update: Despite Hurricanes, Solid Economic Data

October 2, 2017

Last week gave us a broad look at the economy, including housing, consumer confidence, business investment, and personal income and spending. Some weakness was apparent, but this seems to be due in large part to hurricanes Harvey and Irma and may therefore be short lived. With the exception of new home development, where the market appears to have normalized as supply and demand are close to normal levels, the overall news was good. This week’s data is certainly worth watching but—given the storm effects—not worth giving excessive weight to.

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Improving Fundamentals Lead to a Strong Third Quarter

September 29, 2017

As we close out the third quarter of the year, here’s what we know. It has been a great year and a great quarter for stocks around the world. We’ve seen a really good month for all areas except emerging markets, which pulled back a bit but still posted the strongest quarterly gains overall. Financial assets have been doing much better than expected across the board, and investors remain extremely confident this trend will continue.

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Appearance on TheStreet, September 28, 2017 [Video]

September 29, 2017

Since the beginning of 2017, the S&P 500 is up about 12 percent. Is it on its way to reaching 2,700? 

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What Does the Tax Proposal Mean for the Markets?

September 28, 2017

The big economic news today is the tax reform proposal that the Trump administration unveiled yesterday. For once, we have a proposal that really does live up to the hype. If passed (a big assumption!), this would be the most consequential revamp of the tax system since 1986 in the Reagan administration.

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North Korea: A Slow-Motion Crisis?

September 27, 2017

Yesterday, I spoke with an advisor who told me that a potential confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea is creating a lot of fear among his clients. In fact, one client wants to sell everything and go to cash due to concerns over what might happen. I certainly understand this, particularly in light of the rising level of rhetoric from both sides. That being said, I don’t think we need to be as worried as all that.

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Why the German Election Matters

September 26, 2017

Sitting here in the U.S., Europe seems pretty far away. With everything that is going on with our government and the high-profile military risks (North Korea, anyone?), it would be easy to pass over the results from the German election. But I think that would be a mistake, as the outcome of this election reveals several important signs for the future.

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Monday Update: Hurricanes Continue to Affect the Data

September 25, 2017

Last week, the economic data was all about housing. While disappointing overall, there were signs of future improvement. Plus, the potential effects of the hurricanes make it hard to determine if there is real decay or only passing damage. The Fed remains confident, which suggests that the weakness might be short term, rather than something worse.

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Is Debt Risk Moving Back into the Spotlight?

September 22, 2017

With the front-page news dominated by politics and the hurricanes, there is actually not a lot to report on the economic front. This is a good thing, as it signals that economy continues to do well. It does, however, make it necessary to dig a bit deeper to find out what we should be paying attention to.

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Oil Prices Collapse: Is the Energy Industry Going Back to the Future?

September 21, 2017

Energy, in particular the oil and gas industry, has always been one of the foundations of both the economy and the financial markets. The world has run on oil and gas for decades, to the extent that oil prices have been among the key determinants of recessions and market crashes. In recent years, that impact has been just as strong. The rise in oil prices in the 2000s—and the recent collapse—shook economies and governments around the world.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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