The Independent Market Observer

Lots of Stories, Little That’s New

Posted by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Find me on:

This entry was posted on Aug 27, 2012 10:13:10 AM

and tagged Debt Crisis, Europe, Yesterday's News

Leave a comment

Many stories today that deal with issues we have discussed before, with only two new things really worthy of note.

The first is the passing of Neil Armstrong, which was covered in the Financial Times (FT) with “Reluctant hero who believed he was just doing his job” (p. 2), the New York Times (NYT) with “Neil Armstrong Dies at 82; Made ‘Giant Leap’ as First Man on the Moon” (p. A17), and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) with “He Left Big Footprints on Both the Moon, Earth” (p. A2). My first reaction was that this should have received more coverage—I mean, stepping on another world for the first time is something that has only happened once, ever, to one human being, among the billions of human beings that have been and will be. Given Armstrong’s modesty and humility, however, perhaps the coverage was appropriate after all. I was four years old when he walked on the moon, but I stayed up to watch, and I still remember the gray, scratchy TV picture. Godspeed, Neil, and all the best to you and your family.

The second noteworthy item today is more worrisome. I mentioned in a previous post (“Economic Shock,” June 14) that a couple of years ago, I attended a conference where protectionism was raised as an issue that would become a problem if things didn’t get better. That post highlighted some articles and reasons why the problem was getting worse, and today we find not one, but two stories with examples.

Both are on page B1 of the WSJ: “Backdating of Tariff Fuels Fight Over Chinese Tires,” which deals with U.S. tariff measures, and “France Claims Hyundai Dumps Cars.” The really interesting one is the U.S. story. In response to a court ruling that struck down a previous tariff aimed at cheap Chinese goods, Congress passed a retroactive law that imposes tariffs back to an earlier period during which the court had just ruled they did not apply. There are a couple of takeaways here. First, Congress listened to the manufacturers and passed a law specifically designed to overrule a court decision. This is very protectionist. Second, the law arguably directly violates the Constitution, which prohibits ex post facto laws. So what you have here is a protectionist measure that violates the Constitution and benefits the manufacturers, passed at the directive of those manufacturers to replace a law that was explicitly declared invalid by a court. This is a bad sign, and the second story just proves that it is not limited to the U.S.

Other common stories include Europe, which continues to be a mess, as shown by headlines in the FT: over the weekend in “Tax shortfall imperils Portugal’s deficit target” (p. 2) and on Monday in “Budget hole undermines Spain’s plans” (p. 3), “French PM tells left not to oppose EU treaty” (p. 3), and “Belt tightening reaches heart of Germany” (p. 14). The NYT and WSJ both had similar or related articles. Once again, the problems have not been solved, and this realization is hitting the markets—again.

Quick hits include Libor scandal lawsuits, with “Suits Mount in Rate Scandal,” as I predicted, which made the front page of the WSJ; more financial scandals with “US Investigates Unicredit on Iran” in the WSJ (p. C3) and “UniCredit in US sanctions probe” in the FT (p. 11); and the money market regulatory failure, with “Regulator’s Key Role in Failed Fund Reform” in the NYT, which focuses on the ties between the regulator who sank the reforms and the mutual fund industry that opposed them.

Have a great day!


Subscribe via Email

Crash-Test Investing

Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Conversations

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®