The Independent Market Observer

The Velocity of Money: 2017 Edition

February 9, 2017

Economic questions come in cycles. Recently, with the relatively hawkish tone of the Fed and the turmoil in Washington, DC, economic worries have spiked again, and the velocity of money has become a hot topic.

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Earnings, Valuations, and the Stock Market

January 19, 2017

In yesterday’s post, I discussed how corporate earnings will likely continue to improve, which should be good for the stock market on a fundamental basis. That’s not the whole story, however.

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Q4 Earnings: Expect to Beat Expectations?

January 18, 2017

The key driver of the stock market, over the long term, is earnings. In the short term as well, earnings can be the primary driver of market performance. So, each quarter, it makes sense to review whether earnings are doing well or poorly, and why.

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3 Questions Investors Should Ask in 2017

December 28, 2016

portfolio questionsI wrote this post a couple of years ago, but the ideas here still hold true. In some respects, they're even more apt now than they were then. As we approach the New Year, it's a good time to examine our portfolios (and our lives) and ask ourselves what we could be doing better. — Brad

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Here Comes Santa Claus

December 20, 2016

It’s the most wonderful time of the year!

I suspect many of you are as tired of hearing that as I am. I love the holiday season, but the endless repetition of carols can get to you after a while. (In my case, I attribute it to high school jobs working in a department store. By the time I left for the day, I wanted to go after Frosty with an icicle.)

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The Stock Market Giveth and the Bond Market Taketh Away

December 14, 2016

Over the past couple of years, I’ve written several posts that explained why U.S. market indices are not the best ways to measure your portfolio. Although it’s natural to look at the Dow, for example, and see how it matches up with your own portfolio, it really isn’t a good comparison.

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Dow 20,000 in Sight

December 9, 2016

I remember when the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 10,000, both going up and going down. It was a lot more fun going up, especially the first time. The index is now approaching double that level—Dow 20,000. If we get there, it should be exciting.

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Floating-Rate Strategies: You Might Not Get What You Want

December 8, 2016

My colleague and friend Peter Essele, portfolio manager here at Commonwealth, has again put together an interesting piece highlighting the gap that often exists between what investors expect and what the market gives them. Although it’s a bit technical, the point is very important given recent moves in interest rates and the ongoing search for yield by many investors.

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Should I Invest Outside the U.S.?

December 6, 2016

With U.S. stocks surging to new highs and trouble brewing elsewhere in the world (the failed Italian referendum and resignation of Matteo Renzi, not to mention the continued decline in the Chinese currency), I’ve been getting questions about whether investors should just stay here in the USA.

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Market Records and Your Investments

November 29, 2016

The stock market keeps hitting new highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 19,000 for the first time last week, and the S&P 500 is up to 2,200, itself a record. In many ways, the market is off to the races.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

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