The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Consumer Confidence Pulls Back

January 2, 2018

Last week was a short one, due to the Christmas holiday, with only one major data release. But the week ahead will be a busy one and will give us a wide-ranging look at the economy.

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Housing Surprises to the Upside

December 26, 2017

Last week was very positive for the housing sector, with both consumers and builders showing surprisingly high levels of confidence and activity. But the week ended with a cautionary note for business investment. As that has been a particularly strong story recently, it warrants attention. Overall, however, the news was good as we end the year.

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Monday Update: Consumers Continue to Earn and Spend

December 18, 2017

Last week had only three major reports, but they covered the spectrum of economic activity. Overall, the news was quite good—with faster income and spending growth, as well as continued industrial and manufacturing expansion.

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What the FCC’s Decision on Net Neutrality Rules Means for Consumers

December 15, 2017

From an economic standpoint, many of the changes made so far by the Trump administration have been regulatory, not legislative. For all the media coverage on the health care battles, and now the tax reform battle, the real work has been down in the trenches, looking at regulations that constrain different industries and trying to repeal those deemed most onerous.

The latest change—which has received an unusually high profile—is the decision by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to repeal what are called the net neutrality rules.

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What to Expect from the Fed in 2018

December 14, 2017

On the economic front, the headline news is that the Fed raised rates another quarter point, as expected. So far, so what? But the details paint a more interesting and useful picture about what the Fed is likely to do with interest rates next year—and what that means for you as an investor.

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Monday Update: Mixed Results, Healthy Overall

December 11, 2017

Last week was a busy one for economic data, with significant reports across all areas. The news was mixed, with declines in several areas, although the overall levels remain healthy. This suggests that the recovery continues but that it may be peaking.

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The Tax Bill: What Matters Most for Taxpayers

December 5, 2017

Yesterday, I spent some time talking with my accountant, Dave, about the implications of the new tax bill as we understand it so far. The discussion focused on planning charitable giving, but I found the context of the pending tax bill to be illuminating beyond that. He made some excellent points about what really matters to most taxpayers that I thought were worth sharing. So, here we go. (Thanks, Dave!)

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Monday Update: Consumer Confidence Soars to 17-Year High

December 4, 2017

Last week gave us a detailed look at both how consumers are feeling and what they are doing, as well as the sentiment levels of manufacturing companies. Overall, the news was quite good. It matched or beat expectations across the board—suggesting that the recovery continues and may well accelerate.

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Dow 24K: Cue the Fireworks?

December 1, 2017

Well, the Dow has hit another milestone: 24K. Should we cue the fireworks, cheering, champagne bottles, and so forth? Since it is the fifth time this year that a 1,000-point milestone has happened, perhaps we want to take a step back first. Anything that happens five times in a year is hardly uncommon—and perhaps not worth getting all that excited about.

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Bitcoin: Price Versus Value

November 30, 2017

All of the coverage on bitcoin has centered on its radical appreciation this year. But I believe something is getting lost in the discussion. While much has been said about the price of bitcoin, there has been little mentioned of its value. What I mean by this is that the value of bitcoin, at this point, is purely speculative. People are buying it in the hope that it will become an asset class of its own or just because it has risen so much—not because of what it is intrinsically worth.

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