Almost two years ago exactly, I wrote the piece “Global Inflation Outlook: Are Lower Numbers on the Horizon?” Global inflation peaked at 14.3 percent that same month (April 2022). Initially, inflation sharply came off this top, hitting a low of 2.1 percent in May 2023. But more recently, we saw prints above 5 percent globally on a headline basis before returning to the 3 percent range by year-end.

One of my core beliefs as a portfolio manager is that we get paid to worry so investors don’t have to. Several weeks ago, Brad wrote about what was worrying investors and whether those issues were worth worrying about. He also acknowledged that there are some real concerns out there as well. I want to build on that idea and provide insight into how portfolio managers think about risks when everything seems to be going exactly as investors had hoped and, except for some short pullbacks measured in hours or days, markets continue to move higher.

Living in New England, the weather can be inconsistent—so I never really trust that warm days could be here to stay until the second week of April. Watching the Masters this Thursday and seeing the beautifully manicured greens and blooming azaleas will get me excited for golf season (even if the grass isn’t as green up here and the weather is still in the 40s). But along with the start of spring and golf season, we also get ready to kick off the earnings season.

March was another positive month for markets, continuing the rally to start the year. Improving corporate fundamentals and a supportive economic backdrop drove solid single-digit returns for U.S. markets during the month. This capped off a strong quarter for U.S. stocks, an encouraging sign that the economic and market momentum from 2023 has carried over into 2024.

While stocks performed well during the month and quarter, fixed income was a bit more mixed. Investment-grade bonds were up in March but ended modestly down for the quarter due to rising interest rates. High-yield bonds, typically less driven by interest rate movements, ended both March and the quarter in positive territory.

My last blog was titled “A Start to Remember for the Markets”—and it’s a story that continues to play out as we move further into 2024. With March’s closing price, the S&P 500 is now up 10.16 percent on the year. Today, we’ll look at a few different aspects of the S&P 500, including its 2024 Q1 return and its five-month return, as well as the relative strength index. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, leaving its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This came as no surprise, with futures markets indicating a near-zero percent chance of a rate cut in the days and weeks leading up to the decision.

Every year or two, a new round of worries crops up. Some of them are real—the war in Ukraine, inflation, politics—but a surprising number are not. The challenge, of course, is telling which is which. 

I love spending time outdoors—except when it’s 20 degrees outside. For me, winter in Boston is a time to focus on self-improvement, whether that’s working on fitness goals or taking a class, so I can enjoy the warm weather when it finally arrives. Still, the winter can seem very long, as did 2022 and 2023 for many businesses. Companies saw margins contract, sought to lower their debt loads as rates rose, and made efforts to right-size their businesses for what seemed like an oncoming recession.

Since the 1980s, we have celebrated and honored female trailblazers, who have shaped our history and advocated for change, during Women’s History Month. Today, March 8, is no exception, as we celebrate International Women’s Day by recognizing women’s global achievements and contributions to history, culture, and society. International Women’s Day also serves as a powerful reminder of the ongoing struggles women face in the modern workplace, including gender equality, pay equity, and the lack of visibility of women in leadership positions.

February was a good month for stocks, with most markets up in the low- to mid-single digits on positive economic and earnings news. The riskiest indices, the Nasdaq and emerging markets, performed especially well as investors stayed risk-on. Fixed income, on the other hand, generally declined as interest rates rose significantly during the month on fading hopes for Fed rate cuts. These results reflected the broader economy in different ways. But, where growth continues, so does inflation.