The headline for this morning is that new home sales are down more than 14 percent on a month-to-month basis. This comes in tandem with drops in mortgage applications and a much smaller drop, of less than 1 percent, in existing home sales. With rates up, and demand potentially declining as institutional buyers pull back, is it time to worry that the housing recovery is over?

My son, Jackson, is almost six, and we are starting to have conversations about what Daddy does for work. Since he is also at the age where we spend an inordinate amount of time talking about good guys versus bad guys—particularly in the context of Star Wars—this also tends to bleed over into other areas. So, of course, it got me thinking about where we, as an industry, stand.

This is the last installment in our series on rising interest rates. Here, we’ll cover what everyone really wants to know: What do rising rates mean for our investments?

Yesterday, we discussed what the natural rate of interest should be, arriving at about 5 percent on a nominal basis, assuming 2-percent inflation. That seems like a reasonable number over time, given that the Federal Reserve has committed to an inflation target of 2 percent. But with interest rates currently at much less than 3 percent, there’s clearly a gap between what the rate should be and where it is now.

For some reason, we are experiencing a new wave of doom and gloom. In the past week, I’ve been forwarded several e-mails rehashing end-of-the-world stories, including an invitation to watch a video entitled Meltdown America. When I was interviewed on TV yesterday, the clear theme of the questions was whether this was it, the big crash.

Summer is coming, finally, and we have a nice day outside. Of course, summer means amusement parks and, as Jackson gets older, Dad taking him on rides. I miss the days of the rocket ships that went in gentle circles—now we are moving on to the teacups and the roller coasters that make you regret that hot dog you ate very much.

I’m back in the office today with no overarching story, but a lot of items worth a look.

Friday was a scary day in the markets, as pretty good economic news was met with a downturn in stock prices. The S&P 500 dropped 1.25 percent, and the Nasdaq dropped a scarier 2.6 percent.

The data is coming in, and it appears it was the weather after all. The jobs report showed a gain of 192,000 (slightly below expectations but still quite healthy), the unemployment rate remained steady at 6.7 percent (which is actually better than it looks), and private employment hit a new all-time high—all very good signs for the future.

I’m at the Commonwealth Winners Circle conference this week, talking with our financial advisors and having a wonderful time. The Arizona weather is a huge improvement on that of many parts of the country, which is lightening everyone’s mood. Even as we enjoy the better weather, though, one of the questions that keeps coming up is whether the current positive trends in many areas will continue, or change, and how will we know? Is the better economic weather transitory, or is spring really on its way?