This week’s update is somewhat worse than last week’s. Medical risks are still rising. Outbreaks in several states (notably, Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas) continued to get worse, even as other states began showing faster outbreaks.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Markets continued to rise in June, as efforts to reopen state economies across the country continued throughout the month. Investors reacted to the continued reopening with optimism, driving the S&P 500 up 1.99 percent in June following a 4.76 percent increase in May. These positive results came despite some midmonth volatility created by concerns of rising national coronavirus case numbers. While the continued market rebound during the month was certainly welcome for investors, very real risks to markets still remain—and there are several key factors that matter when determining the overall risk level.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front, with only three major data releases. The highlight of the week was the ISM Nonmanufacturing index, which showed that service sector confidence rebounded by far more than expected in June. This week, we’ll get numerous important updates, with a focus on consumer inflation, industrial production, retail sales, housing, and consumer confidence.

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. It was another bad week on the medical front. The viral outbreaks in several states continued to get worse, with some health care systems reaching capacity. Further, new cases at the national level broke 60,000 per day for the first time, and the daily spread rate reached 2 percent per day. Although the risks are rising, the affected states have started to impose the needed restrictive measures, and the public has begun to modify its behavior. As such, we can reasonably expect these outbreaks to peak and then decline in the next couple of weeks.

This week’s coronavirus update is pretty much the same as last week’s. The medical risks are still rising. Outbreaks in several states (notably, Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas) have continued to get worse. All have shown significant spikes in cases in recent days, and health care capacity is now a concern in some cities. Further, multiple other states are also seeing expanded case growth, although not yet at the levels of those four. At the national level, as of July 9, the number of new cases broke above 60,000 for the first time, and the daily spread rate is now at 2 percent per day. Similarly, even as the number of tests continues to rise, the positive rate is also increasing. The breadth and magnitude of the outbreaks continue to increase the risk at a national level.

The rest of 2020 will be all about the virus. We’re seeing localized outbreaks, but the necessary countermeasures are in place. So, we can reasonably expect the virus to remain under control. Despite the medical setbacks, millions of jobs have returned, along with consumer confidence and spending. The recovery remains on track and is likely to continue. And that's exactly what the markets are expecting.

How can a second quarter depression lead to new growth? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move.

Brad here. Another question I have been getting repeatedly is whether value is dead. Just as with emerging markets, a long run of underperformance has raised this question. Is the situation different now? Peter Essele, one of Commonwealth’s most senior portfolio managers, is very well positioned to answer that question. Over to you, Pete!

What is the investor focus for the remainder of 2020? I discussed this and more today on Nasdaq’s Trade Talks.