Yesterday, I shared my view that the European situation will probably be resolved, and the eurozone preserved, as the alternative could be a return to the conflicts that ripped the continent apart in the last century. The Greek elections were the latest crisis flash point, opening up the possibility of electing Syriza, a party that had pledged to reject the painfully negotiated bailout package.

I hope all you fathers out there had a great day. I had a wonderful time playing with my son, Jackson, who is 4 years old. We brought him home from Viet Nam about three and a half years ago, and he is a great kid.

There was more in the papers today about Europe, as the situation continues to evolve amid lots of hand-wringing about what can be done to save the region. The problem is not going away. We are facing a continuing series of what will be perceived as crises—a “hurricane season”—that will result from each country’s decision about whether to remain in the eurozone, and give up much or all of its budgetary and fiscal sovereignty, or go independent. Some, like Greece, might not end up with the luxury of being able to make the decision for themselves.

Right now, we are seeing Hurricane Spain, which will be followed shortly by others. The UK is putting flood walls in place—to extend the metaphor—and reports are that central banks around the world are readying rescue operations in case the Greek elections result in even more political and financial turmoil. What we have learned at this point is that volatility will certainly continue.

But not, perhaps, what you are thinking of. The economic shock I’m referring to happened a couple years ago at a conference given by Capital Economics, a consultancy we use. There, for the first time, I heard a very accomplished and respectable economist make a case for protectionism. I was stunned.

Not, he hastened to add, that protectionism was a good thing overall—it wasn’t—but he believed that the U.S. could potentially be better off with the imposition of some trade-limiting measures. Although we might have to pay for this benefit with larger losses elsewhere, the U.S. would be better off on a net basis.

The pain in Spain continues, with yields hitting a euro-area high of 6.8 percent—very close to what is widely viewed as the 7-percent red line that would compel a bailout. Intra-European political debates about how best to handle the situation are ongoing, with non-Germans demanding that Germany pay and Germany, understandably, looking for other options.

I don’t want to talk about that today, though, for a couple of reasons. First, because we already discussed it for the past two days and nothing material has changed. And second, because there is some U.S. economic news that warrants discussion.

As promised two days ago, today we have more on Europe and China. The Spain situation continues to evolve, and the markets gave a resounding vote of no confidence on the bank rescue. After first rallying, equity markets either ended flat or down. Spain’s 10-year bond yields climbed to almost 6.5 percent and Italy’s to more than 6 percent.

The fallout went beyond the financial markets. Cyprus became the fifth European nation to seek a bailout, and China stepped up its stimulus by encouraging banks to lend more. The president of the European Commission called for all 27 countries to submit to common banking supervision and regulation. The front page of New York Times included an article titled “Worry for Italy Quickly Replaces Relief for Spain.”

The headlines this morning are all about the Spanish banking system rescue, with front-page, top-of-the-fold articles in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times.

This is the inaugural post in Commonwealth’s new blog, The Independent Market Observer. It is being written on my birthday, which makes it somehow nice that we’re kicking off this blog on the same day I came into the world.

For those who don’t know me, my name is Brad McMillan. I am Commonwealth’s chief investment officer and will be the primary author of the posts here. I will also bring in content from other members of the Commonwealth team where it makes sense—we have a wealth of talent here, and I want to share that—but I see this as my soapbox from which to highlight, on a regular basis, what I think is important in the economy and markets.

Sell in May and go away?

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